{"id":213,"date":"2014-11-21T21:19:00","date_gmt":"2014-11-21T21:19:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/192.168.1.70\/wordpress\/?page_id=213"},"modified":"2017-03-05T15:28:14","modified_gmt":"2017-03-05T15:28:14","slug":"ahrif-breytinga-i-solinni-a-hitastig-jardar-med-augum-verkfraedings","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"http:\/\/www.agust.net\/wordpress\/loftslagsmal\/ahrif-breytinga-i-solinni-a-hitastig-jardar-med-augum-verkfraedings\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c1hrif breytinga \u00ed s\u00f3linni \u00e1 hitastig jar\u00f0ar me\u00f0 augum verkfr\u00e6\u00f0inga…"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Fylgni<\/a>

Fylgni hitastigs og s\u00f3lvirkni er fur\u00f0u mikil.<\/p><\/div>\n

\u00a0D R \u00d6 G \u00a0 \u00cd \u00a0 V I N N S L U<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Upphaflega 21. n\u00f3vember 2014<\/span>
\nS\u00ed\u00f0ast breytt 20 \u00e1g\u00fast 2015<\/span><\/p>\n

Hva\u00f0 er merkilegt vi\u00f0 myndina sem er efst \u00e1 s\u00ed\u00f0unni?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Svarti <\/strong>ferillinn s\u00fdnir breytingar \u00e1 hitastigi lofthj\u00fapsins fr\u00e11850 til 2012.<\/p>\n

Rau\u00f0i <\/strong><\/span>ferillinn er \u00fatkoman \u00far s\u00e1raeinf\u00f6ldu st\u00e6r\u00f0fr\u00e6\u00f0il\u00edkani sem s\u00fdnir mismun \u00e1 inngeislun s\u00f3lar og \u00fatgeislun jar\u00f0ar.<\/p>\n

\u00dea\u00f0 sem er merkilegt er a\u00f0 \u00feessir ferlar falla n\u00e1nast saman s\u00ed\u00f0astli\u00f0in 100 \u00e1r.<\/p>\n

Hvers vegna er \u00fea\u00f0 merkilegt?<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00dea\u00f0 er merkilegt vegna \u00feess a\u00f0 l\u00edkani\u00f0 sem nota\u00f0 var tekur ekki<\/strong> tillit til aukningar koltv\u00eds\u00fdrings \u00ed lofthj\u00fapnum. A\u00f0eins breytilegrar virkni s\u00f3lar \u00e1samt innri \u00e1ratuga langra sveiflna (60 \u00e1ra sveiflan svokalla\u00f0a, hafstraumar, haf\u00eds, \u2026).<\/p>\n

N\u00e6stu \u00e1r?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Mi\u00f0a\u00f0 vi\u00f0 \u00fer\u00f3un \u00ed virkni s\u00f3lar undanfari\u00f0, og tilg\u00e1tum um \u00fer\u00f3un hennar n\u00e6stu \u00e1run, sp\u00e1ir l\u00edkani\u00f0 fyrir um \u00fer\u00f3un \u00ed hitastigi til \u00e1rsins 2020 eins og rau\u00f0i\u00a0<\/strong><\/span>ferillinn lengst til h\u00e6gri s\u00fdnir, \u00fe.e. k\u00f3lnun um \u00fev\u00ed sem n\u00e6st 0,2\u00b0C.<\/p>\n

En mi\u00f0a\u00f0 vi\u00f0 l\u00edklega e\u00f0a hugsanlega \u00fer\u00f3un \u00ed virkni s\u00f3lar n\u00e6stu \u00e1r (ekkert er \u00f6ruggt \u00ed \u00feeim efnum, en gert er r\u00e1\u00f0 fyrir svipa\u00f0ri s\u00f3lvirkni og var \u00e1 \u00e1runum 1924-1941) sp\u00e1ir l\u00edkani\u00f0 fyrir um \u00fer\u00f3un \u00ed hitastigi til \u00e1rsins 2030 eins og gr\u00e6ni<\/span> strika\u00f0i\u00a0<\/strong>ferillinn lengst til h\u00e6gri s\u00fdnir, \u00fe.e. k\u00f3lnun um \u00fev\u00ed sem n\u00e6st 0,3\u00b0C<\/p>\n

Hvernig er \u00feetta gert?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Dan Pangburn er v\u00e9laverkfr\u00e6\u00f0ingur M.Sc. me\u00f0 g\u00f3\u00f0a \u00feekkingu \u00e1 varmafr\u00e6\u00f0i. Hann notar einfaldlega \u00fe\u00e1 a\u00f0fer\u00f0 sem notu\u00f0 er \u00ed verkfr\u00e6\u00f0inni vi\u00f0 svipa\u00f0a \u00fatreikninga og ni\u00f0ursta\u00f0an kemur \u00e1 \u00f3vart.<\/p>\n

Flestir sem hafa sko\u00f0a\u00f0 samsv\u00f6run \u00ed virkni s\u00f3lar og hitastigs lofthj\u00fapsins hafa einfaldlega bori\u00f0 \u00feessa ferla saman. \u00dea\u00f0 gefur ranga mynd af raunveruleikanum einfaldlega vegna \u00feess a\u00f0 \u00fea\u00f0 tekur langan t\u00edma fyrir breytingar \u00ed orkuinnstreyminu a\u00f0 skila s\u00e9r sem hitabreytingar vegna \u00feess hve sj\u00f3rinn er lengi a\u00f0 hitna. Sj\u00f3rinn er jafnframt lengi a\u00f0 k\u00f3lna aftur \u00feegar inngeislunin minnkar vegna \u00feess hve g\u00f3\u00f0ur varmageymir hann er.\u00a0\u00a0 \u00deessi t\u00edmaseinkun er nokkur \u00e1r.<\/p>\n

A\u00f0fer\u00f0 Dan Pangburn byggir \u00e1 \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 reikna hitunar\u00e1hrif breytilegrar s\u00f3lvirkni m\u00ednus \u00fatgeislun fr\u00e1 j\u00f6r\u00f0inni \u00fat \u00ed geiminn yfir nokkur \u00e1r. \u00dea\u00f0 er gert me\u00f0 \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 nota t\u00edmaintegrali\u00f0 af mismuninum \u00e1 \u00feessum st\u00e6r\u00f0um \u00ed sta\u00f0 augnabliksgildisins.<\/p>\n

\u00deeir sem eru a\u00f0 reikna \u00ed t.d. varmafr\u00e6\u00f0inni e\u00f0a reglunarfr\u00e6\u00f0inni nota svona a\u00f0fer\u00f0ir. \u00dea\u00f0 \u00fearf alltaf a\u00f0 byrja \u00e1 \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 stilla upp sannf\u00e6randi st\u00e6r\u00f0fr\u00e6\u00f0il\u00edkani sem l\u00fdsir fyrirb\u00e6rinu. Alltaf er fars\u00e6last a\u00f0 \u00fea\u00f0 s\u00e9 einfalt og sk\u00fdrt, \u00e1n fl\u00e6kjustiga.<\/p>\n

A\u00f0 nota t\u00edmaintegrali\u00f0 af t\u00edmar\u00f6\u00f0inni \u00ed sta\u00f0 augnabliksgildisins er r\u00e9tt a\u00f0fer\u00f0. T\u00f6kum einfalt d\u00e6mi sem allir \u00feekkja:<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00deegar s\u00fapupotturinn er \u00e1 eldav\u00e9lahellunni dugir ekki a\u00f0 horfa \u00e1 hva\u00f0 eldav\u00e9lin er stillt til a\u00f0 giska \u00e1 hitastig s\u00fapunnar. \u00dea\u00f0 er ekki fyrr en potturinn hefur veri\u00f0 \u00e1 eldav\u00e9linni \u00ed nokkra stund sem hitastig s\u00fapunnar hefur n\u00e1\u00f0 jafnv\u00e6gi. \u00de\u00e1 er orkustreymi\u00f0 komi\u00f0 \u00ed jafnv\u00e6gi; m\u00e6lt yfir \u00e1kve\u00f0inn t\u00edma streymir jafn mikil orka inn \u00ed pottinn og \u00fat \u00far honum vegna \u00fatgeislunar. (Vi\u00f0 gerum r\u00e1\u00f0 fyrir a\u00f0 vatni\u00f0 sj\u00f3\u00f0i ekki). \u00a0Hitastig s\u00fapunnar g\u00e6ti \u00fe\u00e1 t.d. enda\u00f0 \u00ed 80 gr\u00e1\u00f0um eftir a\u00f0 hafa hitna\u00f0 h\u00e6gt fr\u00e1 20 gr\u00e1\u00f0um ef eldav\u00e9larhellan var stillt \u00e1 \u201cmedium\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0 Sama ni\u00f0ursta\u00f0a, 80 gr\u00e1\u00f0ur, g\u00e6ti fengist \u00fe\u00f3 svo stillihnappnum v\u00e6ri sn\u00fai\u00f0 \u00ed s\u00edfellu milli \u201elow\u201c, medium og \u201ehigh\u201c, \u00fe.e. ef me\u00f0altali\u00f0 af orkustreyminu, reikna\u00f0 yfir n\u00e6gilega langan t\u00edma, er n\u00e6rri \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 vera \u201emedium\u201c. Hitastigi\u00f0 \u00ed s\u00fapupottinu hoppar ekki sn\u00f6gglega upp og ni\u00f0ur \u00ed takt vi\u00f0 hitastillinn, heldur st\u00edgur e\u00f0a fellur h\u00e6gt og r\u00f3lega.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sumir hitastillar \u00ed eldav\u00e9lum p\u00falsa me\u00f0 fullu afli inn \u00e1 eldav\u00e9lina eins og s\u00e9st oft \u00e1 litlu blikkandi lj\u00f3si. \u00deessir p\u00falsar geta veri\u00f0 \u00a0misbrei\u00f0ire\u00f0a jafnbrei\u00f0ir og er \u00fe\u00e1 fj\u00f6ldi \u00feeirra \u00e1 t\u00edmaeiningu breytilegur. \u00a0Treg\u00f0an \u00ed hitun vatnsins \u00ed pottinum framkv\u00e6mir tegrun e\u00f0a t\u00edma-integral \u00e1 sama h\u00e1tt og hinn mikli massi sj\u00e1var sem f\u00e6r \u00f6rl\u00edti\u00f0 breytilega hitun fr\u00e1 s\u00f3linni. \u00deessi treg\u00f0a er kannski a\u00f0eins 10 m\u00edn\u00fatur \u00ed pottinum, en er af st\u00e6r\u00f0argr\u00e1\u00f0unni 10 \u00e1r \u00ed hafinu.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00deetta var miki\u00f0 einf\u00f6ldu\u00f0 \u00fatsk\u00fdring, en sko\u00f0um n\u00fa d\u00e6mi\u00f0 n\u00e1nar:<\/p>\n

Dan Pangburn skiptir \u00feeim \u00e1hrifum sem valda breytingum \u00e1 hitastigi lofthj\u00fapsins \u00ed \u00ferj\u00e1 flokka:<\/p>\n

1) Ytri \u00e1hrif:<\/strong> Inngeislun fr\u00e1 s\u00f3l m\u00ednus \u00fatgeislun fra j\u00f6r\u00f0inni \u00fat \u00ed geiminn. S\u00f3lin er eini hitagjafi jar\u00f0ar og \u00fatgeislun jar\u00f0ar einu k\u00e6li\u00e1hrifin.<\/p>\n

2) Innri sveiflur:<\/strong> “60 \u00e1ra sveiflan” sem orsakast getur af hafstraumum, haf\u00eds, o.fl. (Sj\u00e1 t.d. kenningar P\u00e1ls Berg\u00fe\u00f3rssonar). \u00deetta eru \u00feekktar sveiflur sem orsaka 30 \u00e1ra hl\u00fdnun og 30 \u00e1ra k\u00f3lnun, o.s.frv.<\/p>\n

3)<\/strong> \u00c1hrif koltv\u00eds\u00fdrings:<\/strong>\u00a0 \u00deetta eru s\u00edvaxandi \u00e1hrif sem eru \u00ed hlutfalli vi\u00f0 logarithmann af styrk CO2. Ekki er vita\u00f0 me\u00f0 vissu hve mikil \u00feessi \u00e1hrif eru.<\/p>\n

St\u00e6r\u00f0fr\u00e6\u00f0il\u00edkani\u00f0 sem er h\u00e9r fyrir ne\u00f0an er ekki fl\u00f3ki\u00f0. Eins og s\u00e9st \u00e1 sk\u00fdringamyndinni er \u00fea\u00f0 sett saman \u00far \u00feeim 3 \u00fe\u00e1ttum sem geti\u00f0 var um h\u00e9r fyrir ofan, en summa \u00feeirra t\u00e1knar heildar\u00e1hrifin.<\/p>\n

\"Pangburn<\/a><\/p>\n

\u00a0(St\u00e6kka m\u00e1 myndina me\u00f0 \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 smella \u00e1 hana).<\/span><\/p>\n

Taki\u00f0 eftir b\u00f3kst\u00f6funum b, a, c og d \u00ed st\u00e6\u00f0fr\u00e6\u00f0il\u00edkaninu h\u00e9r fyrir ne\u00f0an. \u00a0\u00dea\u00f0 eru vogt\u00f6lur sem nota\u00f0ar eru til a\u00f0 f\u00ednstilla ferilinn \u00feannig a\u00f0 hann passi vi\u00f0 hitaferilinn.<\/p>\n

Dan Pangburn verkfr\u00e6\u00f0ingur hefur einmitt gert \u00fea\u00f0 og ni\u00f0ursta\u00f0an er myndin efst \u00e1 s\u00ed\u00f0unni. \u00a0\u00cd lj\u00f3s kemur a\u00f0 \u00e1hrif breytinga \u00ed s\u00f3lvirkni vegur \u00feyngst, s\u00ed\u00f0an innri sveiflur, en \u00e1hrif breytinga \u00ed styrk koltv\u00eds\u00fdrings (CO2<\/sub>)<\/span> lang minnst.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00dea\u00f0 hl\u00fdtur a\u00f0 vekja mann\u00a0til umhugsunar a\u00f0 h\u00e6gt s\u00e9 a\u00f0 n\u00e1 miklu meiri fylgni milli s\u00f3lvirkninnar og lofthita, en milli CO2<\/sub> og lofthita.<\/p>\n

\"Dan<\/a><\/p>\n

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L\u00e1tum \u00feessa kynningu n\u00e6gja, og gefum Dan Pangburn or\u00f0i\u00f0.<\/strong> \u00a0Hann hefur veri\u00f0 a\u00f0 \u00fer\u00f3a \u00feessa kenningu \u00ed nokkur\u00a0\u00e1r, en h\u00e9r er stutt grein eftir hann (smella \u00e1 fyrirs\u00f6gnina):<\/p>\n

\u00c1grip:\u00a0The Sun explains 95% of climate change over the past 400 years; CO2<\/sub> had no significant influence<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

\u00cdtarlegri grein eftir Dan Pangburn (6. \u00e1g\u00fast 016): \u00a0<\/a>Climate Change Drivers<\/a>,\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n

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A\u00f0 sj\u00e1lfs\u00f6g\u00f0u sannar \u00feessi a\u00f0fer\u00f0afr\u00e6\u00f0i ekki neitt um samspil s\u00f3lar og ve\u00f0urfars. Svona tilraunir hj\u00e1lpa \u00fe\u00f3 til a\u00f0 skilja m\u00e1li\u00f0 betur og vekja oft upp spurningar. \u00cd \u00feessari tilraun er eing\u00f6ngu vogt\u00f6lunum fyrir framan \u00feessa \u00ferj\u00e1 \u00fe\u00e6tti breytt og sko\u00f0a\u00f0 hva\u00f0 \u00fearf til a\u00f0 ferillinn falli sem best vi\u00f0 m\u00e6lt hitastig lofthj\u00f3psins, e\u00f0a \u00f6llu heldur fr\u00e1vik fr\u00e1 me\u00f0algildi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Heildar\u00e1hrifin = V1*(\u00c1hrif s\u00f3lar) + V2*(\u00c1hrif innri sveiflna) + V2*(\u00c1hrif aukningar CO2)<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00dear sem V1, V2 og V3 eru \u00feessar vogt\u00f6lur.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ni\u00f0urst\u00f6\u00f0ur svona tilrauna f\u00e6r okkur til \u00feess a\u00f0 hugsa: Hvers vegna hefur ein vogtalan svona miklu meiri \u00e1hrif en a\u00f0rar? Hver getur sk\u00fdringin veri\u00f0?<\/span><\/p>\n

A\u00f0 stilla upp st\u00e6r\u00f0fr\u00e6\u00f0il\u00edkani (mathematical model) og gera tilraunir me\u00f0 \u00fea\u00f0 er al\u00feekkt \u00ed verkfr\u00e6\u00f0inni. Stundum er einnig h\u00e6gt a\u00f0 sm\u00ed\u00f0a l\u00edkan \u00ed sm\u00e6kka\u00f0ri mynd, t.d. flugv\u00e9lal\u00edkan \u00ed vindg\u00f6ngum, og stundum er \u00feetta hvort tveggja gert.<\/span>
\nVar\u00f0andi loftslasm\u00e1lin, \u00fe\u00e1 er a\u00f0alatri\u00f0i\u00f0 a\u00f0 sko\u00f0a \u00feau me\u00f0 opnum hug og sko\u00f0a allar hli\u00f0ar m\u00e1lsins \u00e1n ford\u00f3ma. \u00dev\u00ed mi\u00f0ur eru ford\u00f3mar r\u00edkjandi og l\u00e1ta margir n\u00e6gja a\u00f0 fjalla um einfaldasta \u00fe\u00e1ttinn. \u00dea\u00f0 er kannski \u00fe\u00e6gilegast. \u00a0 A\u00f0rir kj\u00f3sa a\u00f0 kryfja m\u00e1li\u00f0 til mergjar.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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Hvernig m\u00e1 \u00fea\u00f0 vera a\u00f0 breytileg s\u00f3lvirkni geti haft svona mikil \u00e1hrif \u00e1 lofthita jar\u00f0ar? \u00a0Sk\u00fdringar geta veri\u00f0 nokkrar:<\/strong><\/p>\n

1) Heildar\u00fatgeislun s\u00f3lar breytist l\u00edti\u00f0, e\u00f0a innan vi\u00f0 1%, l\u00edklega n\u00e6r 0,1% yfir s\u00f3lsveifluna og 0,2% fr\u00e1 \u00e1rinu 1670 (Lean 2000).\u00a0\u00dea\u00f0 n\u00e6gir ekki til a\u00f0 \u00fatsk\u00fdra \u00fe\u00e6r breytingar \u00e1 hitastigi sem m\u00e6lst hafa.<\/p>\n

2) \u00datgeislun \u00e1 \u00fatfj\u00f3lubl\u00e1a svi\u00f0inu (Extreme Ultra Violet – EUV) breytist miklu meira<\/a>, e\u00f0a um 1000% \u00a0(faktor 10)<\/a>. \u00a0 UV geislarnir hafa fyrst og fremst \u00e1hrif \u00ed efstu l\u00f6gum lofthj\u00fapsins, sem getur skila\u00f0 s\u00e9r ni\u00f0ur \u00ed l\u00e6gri hluta hans.<\/p>\n

3) S\u00f3lvindurinn<\/a> er mj\u00f6g breytilegur og m\u00f3tar styrk geimgeisla sem berast til jar\u00f0ar, Tali\u00f0 er nokku\u00f0 v\u00edst a\u00f0 \u00fea\u00f0 hafi \u00e1hrif \u00e1 \u00fe\u00e9ttleika sk\u00fdja og \u00fear me\u00f0 s\u00f3larlj\u00f3si\u00f0 sem berst til jar\u00f0ar. Fleiri lei\u00f0ir<\/a> eru fyrir s\u00f3lvindinn til a\u00f0 hafa \u00e1hrif \u00e1 loftslag vi\u00f0 yfirbor\u00f0 jar\u00f0ar.<\/p>\n

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\u00a0— — —<\/h1>\n

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\u00a0Fleiri tilraunir \u00e1 svipu\u00f0um n\u00f3tum:<\/strong><\/em>
\nAndrew McRae: Simple model replicating HADsstV3 using major SSN\u00a0component<\/a><\/p>\n

Dr. David Evans<\/a> verkfr\u00e6\u00f0ingur og st\u00e6r\u00f0fr\u00e6\u00f0ingur hefur sm\u00ed\u00f0a\u00f0 fl\u00f3ki\u00f0 l\u00edkan:<\/p>\n