\n| Mynd 1. Litla \u00eds\u00f6ldin 1300 – 1700<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n Til \u00feess a\u00f0 skilja \u00fea\u00f0 sem er a\u00f0 gerast \u00ed ve\u00f0urfarinu \u00ed dag er nau\u00f0synlegt a\u00f0 l\u00edta til s\u00f6gunnar.
\n\u00deessi mynd er eftir listamanninn Hendrick Avercamp (1585 – 1663), og s\u00fdnir h\u00fan vetrarh\u00f6rkur \u00feegar svokalla\u00f0 Maunder minimum \u00ed virkni s\u00f3lar haf\u00f0i \u00e1hrif \u00e1 ve\u00f0urfar jar\u00f0ar.Mikil har\u00f0indi voru v\u00ed\u00f0a um heim me\u00f0an \u00e1 “litlu \u00eds\u00f6ldinni” st\u00f3\u00f0. Frosth\u00f6rkur voru \u00fea\u00f0 miklar a\u00f0 Thames \u00ed Englandi var \u00edsi l\u00f6g\u00f0 \u00e1 vetrum, nokku\u00f0 sem \u00f3\u00feekkt er \u00ed dag. \u00c1hrif \u00e1 l\u00edf \u00cdslendinga og gr\u00f3\u00f0urfar h\u00e9r \u00e1 landi hafa vafalaust veri\u00f0 mikil. Vi\u00f0 munum kynnast \u00feessu og fleiru \u00e1 n\u00e6stu s\u00ed\u00f0um.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Ve\u00f0urfarssagan fr\u00e1 landn\u00e1ms\u00f6ld.<\/strong><\/p>\nSamkv\u00e6mt m\u00e6lingum er tali\u00f0 a\u00f0 hitastig jar\u00f0ar hafi h\u00e6kka\u00f0 um \u00fev\u00ed sem n\u00e6st 0,5\u00b0C s\u00ed\u00f0an um 1850. \u00dev\u00ed hefur veri\u00f0 haldi\u00f0 fram a\u00f0 \u00e1st\u00e6\u00f0an s\u00e9 aukning koltv\u00eds\u00fdrings af mannav\u00f6ldum \u00ed andr\u00famsloftinu. Er \u00fea\u00f0 eina sk\u00fdringin, e\u00f0a getur \u00feetta veri\u00f0 samspil margra \u00fe\u00e1tta?<\/p>\n Breytingar \u00ed ve\u00f0urfari \u00e1 s\u00ed\u00f0ustu \u00f6ldum eru vel \u00feekktar. \u00c1 landn\u00e1ms\u00f6ld var jafnvel hl\u00fdrra \u00e1 j\u00f6r\u00f0inni en \u00ed dag, \u00cdsland var \u00fe\u00e1 vi\u00f0i vaxi\u00f0 milli fjalls og fj\u00f6ru og v\u00ednvi\u00f0ur \u00f3x jafnvel \u00ed Englandi. \u00de\u00e1 voru hinir miklu landafundir norr\u00e6nna manna, sem ekki v\u00edlu\u00f0u fyrir s\u00e9r a\u00f0 sigla \u00ed opnum b\u00e1tum landa og heims\u00e1lfa \u00e1 milli. Leifur heppni Eir\u00edksson fann V\u00ednland, \u00fear sem v\u00ednvi\u00f0ur \u00f3x. Eir\u00edkur rau\u00f0i stofna\u00f0i bygg\u00f0 \u00ed Gr\u00e6nlandi \u00e1ri\u00f0 985 er hann sigldi me\u00f0 25 skip \u00cdslendinga \u00feanga\u00f0.<\/p>\n Eftir um 1300 f\u00f3r heimurinn skyndilega a\u00f0 k\u00f3lna. \u00de\u00e1 gekk \u00ed gar\u00f0 langt t\u00edmabil sem menn hafa nefnt “litlu \u00eds\u00f6ldina”. Mikil har\u00f0indi ur\u00f0u \u00e1 \u00cdslandi, bygg\u00f0 norr\u00e6nna manna \u00ed Gr\u00e6nlandi lei\u00f0 undir lok og kuldinn var \u00fea\u00f0 mikill \u00ed Englandi a\u00f0 Thames lag\u00f0i \u00e1 vetrum, og menn h\u00e9ldu h\u00e1t\u00ed\u00f0ir \u00e1 \u00edsnum sem k\u00f6llu\u00f0ust “Frost Fairs”. \u00c1hrifa litlu \u00edsaldarinnar g\u00e6tti um allan heim n\u00e6stu 3-4 aldirnar (mynd 1).<\/p>\n Um 1700 fer heimurinn a\u00f0 hl\u00fdna \u00e1 n\u00fdjan leik og hefur s\u00fa \u00fer\u00f3un haldist til dagsins \u00ed dag, – me\u00f0 rykkjum \u00fe\u00f3. Vi\u00f0 vitum hvernig \u00e1standi\u00f0 var h\u00e9r \u00e1 landi \u00e1 s\u00ed\u00f0ustu \u00f6ld \u00feegar vesturfer\u00f0ir \u00cdslendinga st\u00f3\u00f0u sem h\u00e6st, og f\u00f3lk fl\u00fa\u00f0i har\u00f0indi og f\u00e1t\u00e6kt sem af \u00fev\u00ed leiddi. Eldra f\u00f3lk man eftir frostavetrinum mikla 1918, s\u00ed\u00f0an komu veruleg hl\u00fdindi fram a\u00f0 str\u00ed\u00f0s\u00e1rum, \u00fe\u00e1 nokkur k\u00f3lnun fram til um 1975 er fer a\u00f0 hl\u00fdna aftur. Auk \u00feessara breytinga eru sm\u00e1 sveiflur fr\u00e1 \u00e1ri til \u00e1rs, sem eru breytilegar fr\u00e1 einu landi til annars, eins og vi\u00f0 k\u00f6nnumst vi\u00f0 \u00feegar samfara hl\u00fdjum vetri h\u00e9r eru oft frosth\u00f6rkur \u00e1 meginlandinu. H\u00e9r \u00e1 nor\u00f0ursl\u00f3\u00f0um, \u00fear sem me\u00f0alhiti \u00e1rsins er ekki miki\u00f0 yfir frostmarki (3-4\u00b0C) erum vi\u00f0 miklu n\u00e6mari fyrir sm\u00e1v\u00e6gilegum hitafarsbreytingum en sunnar \u00ed \u00e1lfunni \u00fear sem \u00e1rsme\u00f0alhitinn er mun h\u00e6rri (10-20\u00b0C).<\/p>\n Minni okkar er stutt, og sj\u00e1lf skynjum vi\u00f0 ekki nema nokkra \u00e1ratugi til baka. Ef til vill er \u00fea\u00f0 \u00feess vegna sem menn hafa einbl\u00ednt \u00e1 gr\u00f3\u00f0urh\u00fasa\u00e1hrif vegna aukningar koltv\u00eds\u00fdrings \u00ed andr\u00famsloftinu. \u00deessi kenning hefur veri\u00f0 mj\u00f6g vins\u00e6l, \u00fea\u00f0 vins\u00e6l a\u00f0 ekki hefur veri\u00f0 hlusta\u00f0 n\u00e6gilega vel \u00e1 gagnr\u00fdni sem komi\u00f0 hefur fram fr\u00e1 virtum v\u00edsindam\u00f6nnum \u00ed loftslagsfr\u00e6\u00f0um og stjarne\u00f0lisfr\u00e6\u00f0i.<\/p>\n H\u00e9r a\u00f0 framan s\u00f6g\u00f0um vi\u00f0 a\u00f0 lofhj\u00fapurinn hef\u00f0i hitna\u00f0 um 0,5\u00b0C s\u00ed\u00f0an 1850, \u00ed rykkjum \u00fe\u00f3.<\/p>\n Sko\u00f0um n\u00fa vel myndina (mynd 2) sem s\u00fdnir me\u00f0alhita lofthj\u00faps nor\u00f0urhvels jar\u00f0ar fr\u00e1 1750.<\/p>\n \n\n\n![\"\"](\"http:\/\/agust.net\/sol\/sol-myndir\/hit1750s.gif\") <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| Mynd 2. Samspil hitafars og segult\u00edmabils s\u00f3lar.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n Fr\u00e1vik \u00ed me\u00f0alhita jar\u00f0ar er s\u00fdnt me\u00f0 rau\u00f0um ferli. Lengd segult\u00edmabilsins me\u00f0 sv\u00f6rtum ferli og magn koltv\u00eds\u00fdrings me\u00f0 fj\u00f3lubl\u00e1um ferli.<\/p>\n Mikilli virkni s\u00f3lar fylgir stutt segul- e\u00f0a s\u00f3lblettat\u00edmabil me\u00f0 m\u00f6rgum s\u00f3lblettum. S\u00f3lblettat\u00edmabili\u00f0 er 11 \u00e1r a\u00f0 me\u00f0altali, en segult\u00edmabili\u00f0 22 \u00e1r.<\/p>\n Er \u00feessi greinilega fylgni milli ferlanna sem s\u00fdna me\u00f0alhita og virkni s\u00f3lar tilviljun ein?<\/p>\n Hitastigsm\u00e6lingar fyrir 1850 sj\u00e1st ekki oft, en \u00fe\u00e6r er \u00fe\u00f3 a\u00f0 finna hj\u00e1 erlendum ve\u00f0urgagnab\u00f6nkum. \u00dear er a\u00f0 finna m\u00e6lig\u00f6gn fr\u00e1 um 1700. R\u00e9tt er \u00fe\u00f3 a\u00f0 hafa fyrirvara \u00e1 svo g\u00f6mlum m\u00e6lingum.<\/p>\n S\u00f3lblettir hafa veri\u00f0 \u00feekktir s\u00ed\u00f0an 1610 er Galileo Galilei, Thomas Harriot og Johann Fabricius uppg\u00f6tvu\u00f0u \u00fe\u00e1, hver \u00ed s\u00ednu landi.<\/p>\n \u00deessi mynd er unnin upp \u00far mynd sem birtist \u00ed Astrophysical Journal og Sky & Telescope me\u00f0 greinum eftir Dr. Sallie Baliunas og Dr. Willie Soon.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Ef vi\u00f0 mi\u00f0um vi\u00f0 1750 \u00ed sta\u00f0 1850, hva\u00f0 kemur \u00fe\u00e1 \u00ed lj\u00f3s? Hitastigsh\u00e6kkunin er a\u00f0eins 0,3\u00b0C eins og fram kemur \u00e1 myndinni, og 0,2\u00b0C ef okkur dettur \u00ed hug a\u00f0 mi\u00f0a vi\u00f0 1830! (Vi\u00f0 skulum \u00fe\u00f3 varast a\u00f0 taka allar t\u00f6lur b\u00f3kstaflega. N\u00e1kv\u00e6mni m\u00e6linga var ekki mikil \u00e1\u00f0ur fyrr og margt getur fari\u00f0 \u00farskei\u00f0is \u00feegar veri\u00f0 er a\u00f0 meta breytingar sem eru \u00e1 m\u00f6rkum \u00feess sem m\u00e6lit\u00e6knin leyfir). Vi\u00f0 veitum einnig athygli gr\u00ed\u00f0armikilli uppsveiflu sem hefst um 1820. \u00deessi uppsveifla er enn\u00fe\u00e1 meiri en s\u00fa sem vi\u00f0 h\u00f6fum kynnst \u00e1 \u00feessari \u00f6ld. \u00dev\u00ed mi\u00f0ur st\u00f3\u00f0 \u00feetta ekki lengi, og fyrr en varir fer a\u00f0 k\u00f3lna aftur. Hef\u00f0i \u00feessi mynd n\u00e1\u00f0 1000 \u00e1rum lengra til aftur \u00ed t\u00edmann, \u00fe\u00e1 hef\u00f0um vi\u00f0 s\u00e9\u00f0 a\u00f0 me\u00f0alhiti jar\u00f0ar var h\u00e6rri \u00e1 j\u00f6r\u00f0inni \u00e1 landn\u00e1ms\u00f6ld en hann er \u00ed dag, og s\u00ed\u00f0an verulegt hitafall \u00feegar litla \u00eds\u00f6ldin h\u00f3fst \u00e1 14. \u00f6ld. Hitastig lofthj\u00faps jar\u00f0ar var r\u00e9tt a\u00f0 n\u00e1 s\u00e9r \u00e1 strik aftur um 1700, en h\u00e9lt \u00fe\u00f3 \u00e1fram a\u00f0 sveiflast.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Vandam\u00e1l vi\u00f0 hef\u00f0bundnar kenningar um hitastigsh\u00e6kkun.<\/strong><\/p>\nKoltv\u00eds\u00fdringur \u00ed andr\u00famsloftinu er br\u00e1\u00f0nau\u00f0synlegur \u00f6llu l\u00edfi \u00e1 j\u00f6r\u00f0inni. V\u00e6ri hann ekki fyrir hendi g\u00e6tu pl\u00f6ntur alls ekki \u00ferifist, og \u00fear me\u00f0 ekkert l\u00edf. Koltv\u00eds\u00fdringur er \u00fev\u00ed fjarri \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 vera eitur. Pl\u00f6ntur vinna kolefnissamb\u00f6nd (mj\u00f6lvi, sykur) \u00far koltv\u00eds\u00fdringnum me\u00f0 a\u00f0sto\u00f0 s\u00f3larlj\u00f3ssins eins og al\u00feekkt er. Koltv\u00eds\u00fdringur hleypir \u00ed gegn um sig heitum stuttbylgju hitageislum fr\u00e1 s\u00f3linni, en dregur \u00ed sig svalari langbylgju hitageisla fr\u00e1 yfirbor\u00f0i jar\u00f0ar. \u00deannig er hann sem teppi yfir j\u00f6r\u00f0inni.<\/p>\n \u00dea\u00f0 er ekki einungis koltv\u00eds\u00fdringur sem vinnur sem “gr\u00f3\u00f0urh\u00fasaloft”. Vatnsgufa e\u00f0a raki er mun \u00e1hrifameira gr\u00f3\u00f0urh\u00fasaloft, og eru \u00e1hrif rakans \u00ed andr\u00famsloftinu hvorki meira n\u00e9 minna en 70-90%. N\u00e1kv\u00e6mlega hve miki\u00f0 deila menn um \u00feessa dagana.
\n\u00c1n gr\u00f3\u00f0urh\u00fasalofttegunda v\u00e6ri me\u00f0alhiti jar\u00f0ar m\u00ednus 18\u00b0C. \u00dea\u00f0 er tilt\u00f6lulega au\u00f0velt a\u00f0 reikna \u00fat. H\u00e6fileg gr\u00f3\u00f0urh\u00fasa\u00e1hrif eru \u00fev\u00ed af hinu g\u00f3\u00f0a; \u00e1n \u00feeirra v\u00e6rum vi\u00f0 ekki h\u00e9r.<\/p>\n Koltv\u00eds\u00fdringur \u00ed andr\u00famsloftinu hefur aukist fr\u00e1 0,028% til 0,036% \u00e1 undanf\u00f6rnum \u00e1ratugum, l\u00edklega mest af mannav\u00f6ldum.<\/p>\n Vandam\u00e1lin vi\u00f0 koltv\u00eds\u00fdringskenninguna eru marg\u00fe\u00e6tt, og m\u00e1 sem d\u00e6mi nefna:<\/p>\n 1) Hitasveiflur hafa veri\u00f0 mj\u00f6g miklar. Hva\u00f0a t\u00edma mi\u00f0a\u00f0 er vi\u00f0 hefur veruleg \u00e1hrif \u00e1 t\u00f6lur um h\u00e6kkun hitastigs. \u00cd hva\u00f0a punkti \u00e1 ferlinum byrjar vi\u00f0mi\u00f0unin, og hvar endar h\u00fan? T\u00edmabili\u00f0 sem hitastigsh\u00e6kkunin er oft mi\u00f0u\u00f0 vi\u00f0 (1850-1920) er tilt\u00f6lulega kalt. Ef vi\u00f0 notum t.d. 1750 sem vi\u00f0mi\u00f0un ver\u00f0ur hitastigsh\u00e6kkunin alls ekki eins mikil (sj\u00e1 striku\u00f0u l\u00ednurnar). Ef vi\u00f0 mi\u00f0um vi\u00f0 \u00e1ri\u00f0 1200 sj\u00e1um vi\u00f0 jafnvel k\u00f3lnun!<\/p>\n 2)\u00a0Mesta\u00a0<\/i>hitastigsh\u00e6kkunin \u00e1 \u00feessari \u00f6ld \u00e1tti s\u00e9r sta\u00f0 fram a\u00f0 um 1940. Er s\u00fa h\u00e6kkun ekki \u00ed neinu samr\u00e6mi vi\u00f0 aukningu koltv\u00eds\u00fdrings \u00e1 \u00feeim t\u00edma, sem var tilt\u00f6lulega l\u00edtil.<\/p>\n 3) Fr\u00e1 1945 til 1978\u00a0f\u00e9ll<\/span>\u00a0hitastigi\u00f0 allnokku\u00f0 \u00e1 sama t\u00edma og koltv\u00eds\u00fdringur \u00ed andr\u00famsloftinu j\u00f3kst verulega. \u00deessi l\u00e6kkun kom m\u00f6nnum verulega \u00e1 \u00f3vart og var\u00f0 til \u00feess a\u00f0 sumir f\u00f3ru a\u00f0 sp\u00e1 fyrir um n\u00fdja \u00eds\u00f6ld,. (sj\u00e1: Time 24\/6 ’74 og Newsweek 28\/4 ’75).<\/p>\n4) Miklar sveiflur \u00ed hitastigi \u00e1 undanf\u00f6rnum \u00f6ldum, \u00e1\u00f0ur en menn f\u00f3ru nokku\u00f0 a\u00f0 menga lofthj\u00fapinn me\u00f0 koltv\u00eds\u00fdringi, er sta\u00f0reynd.<\/p>\n N\u00fdjar kenningar.<\/strong><\/p>\n\u00deessar hitasveiflur upp-ni\u00f0ur-upp \u00e1 s\u00ed\u00f0ustu \u00f6ldum ur\u00f0u til \u00feess a\u00f0 hugsandi menn f\u00f3ru a\u00f0 leita a\u00f0 \u00f6\u00f0rum ors\u00f6kum en koltv\u00eds\u00fdringi. Svona laga\u00f0 gerist ekki af sj\u00e1lfu s\u00e9r. Ekki lei\u00f0 \u00e1 l\u00f6ngu \u00fear til sj\u00f3nir manna beindust a\u00f0 s\u00f3linni. S\u00f3lin er j\u00fa eini hitagjafinn. \u00dea\u00f0 rifja\u00f0ist upp a\u00f0 \u00e1 me\u00f0an litlu \u00eds\u00f6ldinni st\u00f3\u00f0 var virkni s\u00f3lar \u00ed l\u00e1gmarki mi\u00f0a\u00f0 vi\u00f0 fr\u00e1sagnir af nor\u00f0urlj\u00f3sum, talningu s\u00f3lbletta sem s\u00e1ust fyrst 1610-1612, (reyndar eru til st\u00f6ku eldri fr\u00e1sagnir af s\u00f3lblettum), og m\u00e6lingum \u00e1 sams\u00e6tunum (isotopunum) kolefni-14 \u00ed \u00e1rhringjum trj\u00e1a og beryllium-10 og s\u00farefni-18 \u00ed \u00eds (borkj\u00f6rnum).<\/p>\n Me\u00f0an \u00e1 litlu \u00eds\u00f6ldinni st\u00f3\u00f0 vir\u00f0ist sem s\u00f3lin hafi veri\u00f0 \u00f3venju \u00f3virk \u00e1 tveim t\u00edmabilum. Nefnast \u00feau Sp\u00f6rer l\u00e1gmark 1400-1510 og Maunder l\u00e1gmark 1645-1715.<\/p>\n N\u00fa vill svo til a\u00f0 s\u00f3lblettir hafa veri\u00f0 skr\u00e1\u00f0ir reglulega s\u00ed\u00f0an 1755 svo au\u00f0velt er a\u00f0 bera \u00fe\u00e1 saman vi\u00f0 virkni s\u00f3lar. S\u00ed\u00f0an 1755 hafa 22 s\u00f3lblettat\u00edmabil veri\u00f0 skr\u00e1\u00f0, og erum vi\u00f0 n\u00fa a\u00f0 byrja t\u00edmabil n\u00famer 23 sem ver\u00f0ur \u00ed h\u00e1marki um aldam\u00f3tin. Hvert t\u00edmabil varir a\u00f0 me\u00f0altali 11 \u00e1r. \u00dev\u00ed h\u00e6rri sem s\u00f3lblettatalan “sunspot index” er, \u00feeim mun meiri er virkni s\u00f3lar. Me\u00f0 \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 bera saman me\u00f0al\u00e1rshita lofthj\u00faps jar\u00f0ar og s\u00f3lblettat\u00f6luna s\u00e9st \u00f3tr\u00falega mikil fylgni. S\u00f3lblettatalan er \u00fe\u00f3 frekar \u00f3n\u00e1kv\u00e6mur m\u00e6likvar\u00f0i \u00fev\u00ed st\u00f3rir s\u00f3lblettir vega \u00feyngra en litlir, svo \u00feetta er a\u00f0 nokkru leyti mat. Til eru a\u00f0rar a\u00f0fer\u00f0ir vi\u00f0 a\u00f0 meta virkni s\u00f3lar, svo sem lengd s\u00f3lsveiflunnar sem a\u00f0 me\u00f0altali er 11 \u00e1r. \u00deetta er au\u00f0veldara a\u00f0 m\u00e6la.<\/p>\n \n\n\n![\"\"](\"http:\/\/agust.net\/sol\/sol-myndir\/solklim1.jpg\") <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| Mynd 3. Samspil hitafars og lengdar s\u00f3lblettat\u00edmabilsins.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n \u00deetta er hin fr\u00e6ga mynd sem birtist \u00ed t\u00edmaritinu Science1991.<\/p>\n H\u00f6fundar myndarinnar Eigil Friis-Christensen og Knut Lassen st\u00f6rfu\u00f0u hj\u00e1 d\u00f6nsku ve\u00f0urstofunni, Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut. Bl\u00e1i ferillinn s\u00fdnir hitafar fr\u00e1 1860 og rau\u00f0i ferillinn lengd s\u00f3lblettasveiflunar. H\u00e9r kemur \u00f3tr\u00faleg fylgni fram. Er \u00feetta tilviljun?<\/p>\n \u00dea\u00f0 er n\u00fa \u00feekkt sta\u00f0reynd a\u00f0 mikilli virkni s\u00f3lar fylgja tilt\u00f6lulega margir s\u00f3lblettir og tilt\u00f6lulega stutt s\u00f3lblettasveifla. \u00deess vegna er l\u00e6gsta talan efst \u00e1 l\u00f3\u00f0r\u00e9tta \u00e1snum. Me\u00f0alt\u00edmi s\u00f3lblettasveiflunar er um 11 \u00e1r, en samt t\u00f6luvert breytilegur.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u00c1 myndinni me\u00f0 hitaferlinum (mynd 2) sem vi\u00f0 vorum a\u00f0 sko\u00f0a er virkni s\u00f3lar einnig s\u00fdnd me\u00f0 sv\u00f6rtum ferli. \u00c1 l\u00f3\u00f0r\u00e9tta \u00e1snum er m\u00e6likvar\u00f0i \u00e1 virkni s\u00f3lar segult\u00edmabili\u00f0 (solar magnetic cycle) sem n\u00e6r yfir tv\u00f6 s\u00f3lblettat\u00edmabil. Virkni s\u00f3lar er \u00fev\u00ed meiri sem \u00feetta t\u00edmabil er styttra. Segulsvi\u00f0 s\u00f3larinnar \u00ed heild skiptir tv\u00edvegis um stefnu \u00e1 \u00feessu t\u00edmabili. Er fylgnin sem \u00fear s\u00e9st tilviljun?<\/p>\n \u00c1ri\u00f0 1991 birtist grein \u00ed hinu virta t\u00edmariti Science eftir tvo danska v\u00edsindamenn hj\u00e1 d\u00f6nsku ve\u00f0urstofunni, Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut – Sol-Jord Fysik sektion. \u00deetta voru \u00feeir f\u00e9lagarnir Eigil Friis-Christensen og Knut Lassen. \u00deeim hugkv\u00e6mdist a\u00f0 bera saman lengd hvers s\u00f3lblettat\u00edmabils og me\u00f0al\u00e1rshita lofthj\u00faps jar\u00f0ar. \u00de\u00f3 svo a\u00f0 me\u00f0al lengd hvers s\u00f3lblettat\u00edmabils s\u00e9 11 \u00e1r, \u00fe\u00e1 er t\u00edminn breytilegur fr\u00e1 u.\u00fe.b. 8 \u00e1rum upp \u00ed 15 \u00e1r. Mikilli virkni s\u00f3lar fylgja miklir s\u00f3lblettir og stutt s\u00f3lblettat\u00edmabil. N\u00fa kom nokku\u00f0 mj\u00f6g merkilegt \u00ed lj\u00f3s. Ferlarnir fyrir hitastig og lengd hvers s\u00f3lblettat\u00edmabils fr\u00e1 1850 til 1990 litu n\u00e1nast alveg eins \u00fat eins og s\u00e9st \u00e1 me\u00f0fylgjandi mynd (mynd 3). Jafnvel m\u00e1 greina samsv\u00f6run \u00ed sm\u00e1atri\u00f0um.<\/p>\n Taki\u00f0 eftir a\u00f0 hitaskalinn er verulega \u00feaninn. Hitastigsbreytingar eru ekki nema brot \u00far gr\u00e1\u00f0u. \u00deessi mynd er or\u00f0in v\u00ed\u00f0fr\u00e6g og s\u00e9st oftast me\u00f0 upphaflega danska sk\u00fdringartextanum. Vi\u00f0 t\u00f6kum eftir \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 l\u00f3\u00f0r\u00e9tti \u00e1sinn vinstra er merktur \u00ed \u00e1rum. \u00deetta er lengd hvers s\u00f3lblettat\u00edmabils. \u00dea\u00f0 er n\u00fa \u00feekkt sta\u00f0reynd a\u00f0 mikil virkni s\u00f3lar er \u00ed hlutfalli vi\u00f0 fj\u00f6lda s\u00f3lbletta, en \u00ed \u00f6fugu hlutfalli vi\u00f0 lengd s\u00f3lblettat\u00edmabilsins. \u00deess vegna er l\u00f3\u00f0r\u00e9tti skalinn me\u00f0 l\u00e6gstu t\u00f6lunni efst (mest virkni).<\/p>\n \u00c1 n\u00e6stu mynd (mynd 4) er s\u00fdnt samspil me\u00f0alhita jar\u00f0ar (rautt) og virkni s\u00f3lar (svart) fr\u00e1 landn\u00e1mi \u00cdslands. Litla \u00eds\u00f6ldin er \u00e1 sama t\u00edma og hin svok\u00f6llu\u00f0u Sp\u00f6rer og Maunder l\u00e1gm\u00f6rk eru \u00ed segulvirkni s\u00f3lar. A\u00f0 sj\u00e1lfs\u00f6g\u00f0u er \u00fatlit ferlanna ekki n\u00e1kv\u00e6mt fyrir um 1750. Helstu dr\u00e6ttir \u00ed hitastigi og virkni s\u00f3lar eru \u00fe\u00f3 \u00feekktir.<\/p>\n \u00dea\u00f0 \u00e6tti n\u00fa a\u00f0 vera lj\u00f3st a\u00f0 sveiflur \u00ed ve\u00f0urfari sem stafa af e\u00f0lilegum sveiflum \u00ed virkni s\u00f3lar eru mj\u00f6g miklar, \u00fea\u00f0 miklar a\u00f0 \u00fe\u00e6r geta h\u00e6glega villt okkur s\u00fdn. Einhver h\u00e6kkun hitastigs vegna CO2<\/sub>\u00a0er l\u00edklega sta\u00f0reynd, en \u00e1hrifin hugsanlega minni en almennt er \u00e1liti\u00f0. Menn eru \u00fe\u00f3 alls ekki \u00e1 einu m\u00e1li, og sitt s\u00fdnist hverjum. \u00cd leit okkar a\u00f0 samspili koltv\u00eds\u00fdrings \u00ed andr\u00famsloftinu og hitafars megum vi\u00f0 ekki l\u00edta fram hj\u00e1 \u00e1hrifum sem haft geta veruleg \u00e1hrif \u00e1 heildarmyndina.<\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"HITAFAR](\"http:\/\/agust.net\/sol\/sol-myndir\/900x2000.gif\") <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| Mynd 4. Samspil virkni s\u00f3lar og hitafars s\u00ed\u00f0ustu 1100 \u00e1r.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n Lengst til h\u00e6gri eru s\u00f6mu ferlar og \u00e1 myndinni sem s\u00fdnir samspil hitafars og segult\u00edmabils s\u00f3lar fr\u00e1 1750. Ferlarnir hafa veri\u00f0 framlengdir til \u00e1rsins 900 og er \u00fe\u00e1 a\u00f0 mestu byggt \u00e1 ranns\u00f3knum Dr. J. Eddy. A\u00f0 sj\u00e1lfs\u00f6g\u00f0u eru ferlarnir \u00f3n\u00e1kv\u00e6mir fyrir t\u00edmabili\u00f0 900 – 1750, en samsv\u00f6rum milli virkni s\u00f3lar og hitafars leynir s\u00e9r ekki. Til eru samsvarandi ferlar fyrir mun lengra t\u00edmabil.<\/p>\n Taki\u00f0 eftir hl\u00fdindum \u00e1 fyrstu \u00e1rum \u00cdslandsbygg\u00f0ar og s\u00ed\u00f0an “litlu \u00eds\u00f6ldinni”. Hiti og virkni s\u00f3lar fylgjast a\u00f0 allan t\u00edmann.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n Hvernig er virkni s\u00f3lar metin?<\/strong><\/p>\nVirkni s\u00f3lar er h\u00e6gt a\u00f0 meta langt aftur \u00ed t\u00edma me\u00f0 \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 m\u00e6la hlutfallslegt magn kolefnis-14 sams\u00e6tunnar \u00ed \u00e1rhringjum trj\u00e1a. S\u00f3lvindurinn er rafagnagas sem streymir fr\u00e1 yfirbor\u00f0i s\u00f3lar. \u00deegar virkni s\u00f3lar er \u00ed h\u00e1marki er s\u00f3lvindurinn einnig meiri en venjulega. \u00deegar s\u00f3lvindurinn er sterkur sk\u00fdlir hann betur j\u00f6r\u00f0inni fyrir geimgeislum. \u00dea\u00f0 eru geimgeislarnir sem eru valdir a\u00f0 kolefnis-14 sams\u00e6tunum, \u00feannig a\u00f0 mikil virkni s\u00f3lar hefur \u00ed f\u00f6r me\u00f0 s\u00e9r tilt\u00f6lulega l\u00e1gt hlutfall kolefnis-14. \u00c1 sama h\u00e1tt m\u00e1 nota beryllium-10 og s\u00farefni-18 sams\u00e6turnar sem finna m\u00e1 \u00ed \u00edskj\u00f6rnum sem fengnir hafa veri\u00f0 me\u00f0 \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 bora \u00ed j\u00f6kla og \u00e1 Su\u00f0urskautslandinu. \u00cd dag er virkni s\u00f3lar beinl\u00ednis m\u00e6ld me\u00f0 hj\u00e1lp gervihnatta.<\/p>\n Hitastig jar\u00f0ar fyrr \u00e1 \u00f6ldum er h\u00e6gt a\u00f0 meta \u00e1 \u00fdmsan h\u00e1tt. Fyrstu hitam\u00e6lingar (\u00f3n\u00e1kv\u00e6mar) eru fr\u00e1 um 1700, en fyrir \u00feann t\u00edma ver\u00f0ur a\u00f0 sty\u00f0jast vi\u00f0 t.d. ann\u00e1la, v\u00f6xt trj\u00e1a metinn \u00fat fr\u00e1 \u00e1rhringjum, framgang og hop j\u00f6kla og ranns\u00f3knir \u00e1 sams\u00e6tum (isotopum).<\/p>\n Hva\u00f0a \u00e1hrif hefur breytileg virkni s\u00f3lar \u00e1 ve\u00f0urfar?<\/strong><\/p>\n\u00c1hrif s\u00f3lar \u00e1 ve\u00f0urfar eru talin vera a.m.k. af \u00ferennum toga: Breytileg heildar\u00fatgeislun, breytilegur s\u00f3lvindur og breytileg \u00fatfj\u00f3lubl\u00e1 \u00fatgeislun. Auk \u00feess eru \u00e1hrif sem kennd eru vi\u00f0 Milutin Milankovitch (m\u00f6ndulhalli, m\u00f6ndulvelta, braut jar\u00f0ar, -mynd 7), og talin eru vera orsakavaldur \u00edsalda sem koma me\u00f0 tug\u00fe\u00fasunda \u00e1ra millibili. Vi\u00f0 munum einbeita okkur a\u00f0 \u00fatgeislun s\u00f3lar og s\u00f3lvindinum.<\/p>\n Breytileg birta (heildar\u00fatgeislun) s\u00f3lar<\/i>\u00a0hefur beinl\u00ednis veri\u00f0 m\u00e6ld. S\u00f3lstu\u00f0ullinn er \u00fea\u00f0 lj\u00f3safl \u00e1 hverja flatareiningu sem sn\u00fdr hornr\u00e9tt \u00e1 geislana utan vi\u00f0 gufuhvolf jar\u00f0ar. Hann er um 1370 w\u00f6tt \u00e1 fermetra (W\/m2<\/sup>). \u00deessi \u00fatgeislun hefur reynst breytast um \u00fev\u00ed sem n\u00e6st 0,1% yfir s\u00f3lsveifluna s\u00ed\u00f0ustu tvo \u00e1ratugi, en r\u00f6k hafa veri\u00f0 f\u00e6r\u00f0 fyrir \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 breyting \u00ed \u00fatgeislun s\u00f3lar hafi veri\u00f0 mun meiri (0,3%-0,5%) fr\u00e1 \u00fev\u00ed “litlu \u00eds\u00f6ldinni” lauk (Hoyt & Schatten, Baliunas). Margir \u00feekktir v\u00edsindamenn telja \u00feessi \u00e1hrif \u00e1 hitafar n\u00e6gileg til a\u00f0 sk\u00fdra a.m.k. helming hitafarsbreytinga (Baliunas, Soon, Hoyt…).<\/p>\nBreytilegur s\u00f3lvindur hefur \u00e1hrif \u00e1 sk\u00fdjafar.<\/i>\u00a0\u00cd t\u00edmaritinu The Economist 11. apr\u00edl 1998 bls. 81 er grein um n\u00fdjar kenningar um \u00e1hrif s\u00f3lvindsins \u00e1 sk\u00fdjafar, og \u00fear me\u00f0 hitafar. Enn eru fr\u00e6ndur okkar Danir hj\u00e1 d\u00f6nsku ve\u00f0urstofunni DMI \u00ed fremstu v\u00edgl\u00ednu.<\/p>\n Kenningin er \u00feessi:
\nS\u00f3lvindurinn er rafagnagas sem streymir fr\u00e1 yfirbor\u00f0i s\u00f3lar (mynd 8). \u00deegar virkni s\u00f3lar er \u00ed h\u00e1marki er s\u00f3lvindurinn einnig meiri en venjulega. \u00deegar s\u00f3lvindurinn er sterkur sk\u00fdlir hann betur j\u00f6r\u00f0inni fyrir geimgeislum. Sem sagt: \u00deegar virkni s\u00f3lar er mikil, \u00fe\u00e1 eru geimgeislar veikir. (\u00deetta er sama fyrirb\u00e6ri og gerir \u00fea\u00f0 a\u00f0 verkum a\u00f0 sams\u00e6turnar (is\u00f3t\u00f3par) kolefni-14 \u00ed \u00e1rhringjum trj\u00e1a eru hlutfallslega meiri \u00feegar s\u00f3lin er \u00ed l\u00e6g\u00f0; – a\u00f0fer\u00f0in til a\u00f0 meta virkni s\u00f3lar langt aftur \u00ed t\u00edma).<\/p>\n H\u00e9r koma \u00feeir f\u00e9lagar Henrik Svensmark og Eigil Friis-Christensen vi\u00f0 s\u00f6gu. Henrik kom til hugar a\u00f0 geimgeislar g\u00e6tu \u00e1tt \u00fe\u00e1tt \u00ed breytilegu hitastigi jar\u00f0ar – me\u00f0 hj\u00e1lp s\u00f3lar. \u00c1samt Agli sko\u00f0a\u00f0i hann gervihnattamyndir af sk\u00fdjafari fr\u00e1 \u00e1rinu 1979. \u00cd lj\u00f3s kom (mynd 12) a\u00f0 \u00feegar geimgeislar eru veikastir \u00feekur sk\u00fdjahulan 65% af yfirbor\u00f0i jar\u00f0ar, en 68% \u00feegar geimgeislar eru hva\u00f0 sterkastir.<\/p>\n Hvernig stendur \u00e1 \u00feessu? Ein kenningin gengur \u00fat \u00e1 a\u00f0 vatnsgufan \u00fe\u00e9ttist \u00e1 ryk\u00f6gnum (aerosols). Geimgeislar j\u00f3nisera gas \u00ed h\u00e1loftunum. J\u00f3nirnar flytja hle\u00f0slu yfir \u00e1 vatnsdropa sem draga a\u00f0 s\u00e9r rykagnir. Rykagnirnar virka \u00fe\u00e1 sem eins konar s\u00e6\u00f0i sem fl\u00fdtir fyrir \u00fe\u00e9ttingu rakans. Fleiri kenningar eru til um \u00feetta m\u00e1l og er fjalla\u00f0 um \u00fe\u00e6r \u00ed greininni.<\/p>\n \n\n\n![\"\"](\"http:\/\/agust.net\/sol\/sol-myndir\/svendmark-chrisensen.gif\") <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| Mynd 12. Samspil geimgeisla, s\u00f3lvindar og sk\u00fdjafars.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n Kenning sem vaki\u00f0 hefur heimsathygli er \u00e6ttu\u00f0 fr\u00e1 Danm\u00f6rku. Kenningin er \u00feessi:
\nS\u00f3lvindurinn er rafagnagas sem streymir fr\u00e1 yfirbor\u00f0i s\u00f3lar. \u00deegar virkni s\u00f3lar er \u00ed h\u00e1marki er s\u00f3lvindurinn einnig meiri en venjulega. \u00deegar s\u00f3lvindurinn er sterkur sk\u00fdlir hann betur j\u00f6r\u00f0inni fyrir geimgeislum. Sem sagt: \u00deegar virkni s\u00f3lar er mikil, \u00fe\u00e1 eru geimgeislar veikir. (\u00deetta er sama fyrirb\u00e6ri og gerir \u00fea\u00f0 a\u00f0 verkum a\u00f0 sams\u00e6turnar (is\u00f3t\u00f3par) kolefni-14 \u00ed \u00e1rhringjum trj\u00e1a eru hlutfallslega meiri \u00feegar s\u00f3lin er \u00ed l\u00e6g\u00f0; – a\u00f0fer\u00f0in til a\u00f0 meta virkni s\u00f3lar langt aftur \u00ed t\u00edma).<\/p>\n H\u00e9r koma \u00feeir f\u00e9lagar\u00a0Henrik Svensmark<\/b>\u00a0og\u00a0Eigil Friis-Christensen<\/b>\u00a0vi\u00f0 s\u00f6gu. Henrik kom til hugar a\u00f0 geimgeislar g\u00e6tu \u00e1tt \u00fe\u00e1tt \u00ed breytilegu hitastigi jar\u00f0ar – me\u00f0 hj\u00e1lp s\u00f3lar. \u00c1samt Agli sko\u00f0a\u00f0i hann gervihnattamyndir af sk\u00fdjafari fr\u00e1 \u00e1rinu 1979. \u00cd lj\u00f3s kom a\u00f0 \u00feegar geimgeislar eru veikastir \u00feekur sk\u00fdjahulan 65% af yfirbor\u00f0i jar\u00f0ar, en 68% \u00feegar geimgeislar eru hva\u00f0 sterkastir.<\/p>\n Hvernig stendur \u00e1 \u00feessu? Ein kenningin gengur \u00fat \u00e1 a\u00f0 vatnsgufan \u00fe\u00e9ttist \u00e1 ryk\u00f6gnum (aerosols). Geimgeislar j\u00f3nisera gas \u00ed h\u00e1loftunum. J\u00f3nirnar flytja hle\u00f0slu yfir \u00e1 vatnsdropa sem draga a\u00f0 s\u00e9r rykagnir. Rykagnirnar virka \u00fe\u00e1 sem eins konar s\u00e6\u00f0i sem fl\u00fdtir fyrir \u00fe\u00e9ttingu rakans.<\/p>\n Breytileg sk\u00fdjahula \u00fe\u00fd\u00f0ir au\u00f0vita\u00f0 breytilegt endurkast s\u00f3larlj\u00f3ss, \u00feannig a\u00f0 mismikill s\u00f3larylur n\u00e6r a\u00f0 sk\u00edna \u00e1 j\u00f6r\u00f0ina.<\/p>\n “Mikil virkni s\u00f3lar -> mikill s\u00f3lvindur -> minni geimgeislar -> minna um sk\u00fd -> minna endurkast -> h\u00e6rra hitastig” !<\/p>\n Augu v\u00edsindamanna beinast n\u00fa a\u00f0 \u00feessum \u00fe\u00e6tti og stendur jafnvel til a\u00f0 gera tilraun til a\u00f0 sta\u00f0festa kenninguna me\u00f0 tilraunum hj\u00e1 CERN \u00ed Sviss.<\/p>\n \u00c1 myndinni er d\u00f6kki ferillinn breyting \u00ed sk\u00fdjahulu me\u00f0 12 m\u00e1na\u00f0a me\u00f0altali (\u00cd pr\u00f3sentum, kv\u00f6r\u00f0un \u00e1 l\u00f3\u00f0r\u00e9tta \u00e1snum vinstra megin, running average). Granni ferillinn s\u00fdnir m\u00e1na\u00f0arme\u00f0altal nifteinda samkv\u00e6mt m\u00e6lingum \u00ed Climax, Colorado (l\u00f3\u00f0r\u00e9tti \u00e1sinn h\u00e6gra megin). Fylgnin er\u00a0r = 0,95.<\/b><\/p>\n <\/b>Ef \u00feessi kenning reynist r\u00e9tt, \u00fe\u00e1 \u00feurfum vi\u00f0 ekki lengur a\u00f0 efast um hva\u00f0 veldur hitabreytingum \u00e1 j\u00f6r\u00f0u!<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Breytileg sk\u00fdjahula \u00fe\u00fd\u00f0ir au\u00f0vita\u00f0 breytilegt endurkast, \u00feannig a\u00f0 mismikill s\u00f3larylur n\u00e6r a\u00f0 sk\u00edna \u00e1 j\u00f6r\u00f0ina. \u00cd stuttu m\u00e1li:\u00a0“Mikil virkni s\u00f3lar -> mikill s\u00f3lvindur -> minni geimgeislar -> minna um sk\u00fd -> minna endurkast s\u00f3larlj\u00f3ss -> h\u00e6rra hitastig”<\/i>.<\/p>\n \u00dea\u00f0 er ekki a\u00f0eins \u00ed t\u00edmaritinu The Economist sem fjalla\u00f0 hefur veri\u00f0 um \u00feessa athyglisver\u00f0u kenningu. Um hana hefur veri\u00f0 skrifa\u00f0 \u00ed fj\u00f6lm\u00f6rg erlend bl\u00f6\u00f0 og t\u00edmarit undanfari\u00f0.<\/p>\n Breytileg \u00fatgeislun \u00e1 \u00fatfj\u00f3lubl\u00e1u lj\u00f3si.\u00a0<\/i>S\u00e9 s\u00f3lin myndu\u00f0 \u00ed \u00fatfj\u00f3lubl\u00e1u lj\u00f3si (mynd 5) kemur fram \u00f3tr\u00falegur munur milli \u00feess sem s\u00f3l er \u00ed l\u00e6g\u00f0 og \u00feegar h\u00fan er \u00ed h\u00e1marki. \u00deessi munur er hlutfallslega mun meiri en \u00ed heildar\u00fatgeislun. \u00dea\u00f0 eru \u00fatfj\u00f3lubl\u00e1ir geislar s\u00f3lar sem mynda \u00f3zon \u00ed h\u00e1loftunum, \u00feannig a\u00f0 magn \u00feess breytist me\u00f0 s\u00f3lblettasveiflunni. M\u00e6lst hafa t\u00f6luver\u00f0ar breytingar \u00ed h\u00e1loftunum \u00e1 vindum og hitastigi \u00ed takt vi\u00f0 s\u00f3lblettasveifluna, sem raktar eru til breytinga \u00ed \u00fatgeislun s\u00f3lar \u00e1 \u00fatfj\u00f3lubl\u00e1u lj\u00f3si.
\n<\/span><\/p>\n\u00dea\u00f0 \u00fearf ekki a\u00f0 koma \u00e1 \u00f3vart a\u00f0 sm\u00e1v\u00e6gilegar breytingar \u00ed virkni s\u00f3lar geti haft \u00e1hrif \u00e1 ve\u00f0urfar. S\u00f3lin er okkar eini varmagjafi og n\u00e6r h\u00fan a\u00f0 hita j\u00f6r\u00f0ina um n\u00e6stum \u00fev\u00ed 300 gr\u00e1\u00f0ur fr\u00e1 alkuli. Breyting \u00ed virkni sem nemur a\u00f0eins 0,1% \u00e6tti \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 hafa m\u00e6lanleg \u00e1hrif \u00e1 ve\u00f0urfar, hva\u00f0 \u00fe\u00e1 ef breytingin er 0,3-0,5%. \u00de\u00f3 a\u00f0eins ef breytingin n\u00e6r yfir nokkra \u00e1ratugi vegna dempunar\u00e1hrifa hafsins.<\/p>\n NASA m\u00e6lir utan \u00far geimnum.<\/strong><\/p>\nBandar\u00edska geimfer\u00f0astofnunin NASA hefur m\u00e6lt hitastig lofthj\u00faps jar\u00f0ar utan \u00far geimnum s.l. 19 \u00e1r (fr\u00e1 1979) og\u00a0ekki<\/b>\u00a0geta\u00f0 m\u00e6lt neina varanlega hitastigsh\u00e6kkun, heldur a\u00f0eins sveiflur upp og ni\u00f0ur (mynd 9). Samkv\u00e6mt m\u00e6lingunum hefur ekki hl\u00fdna\u00f0 \u00ed 0-8 km h\u00e6\u00f0 \u00e1 \u00feessu t\u00edmabili, \u00f6fugt vi\u00f0 \u00fea\u00f0 sem m\u00e6lingar hef\u00f0bundinna ve\u00f0urathugunarst\u00f6\u00f0va “vi\u00f0 yfirbor\u00f0” hafa s\u00fdnt. Ef eitthva\u00f0 er, \u00fe\u00e1 hefur k\u00f3lna\u00f0 \u00f6rl\u00edti\u00f0! M\u00e6lingar hafa veri\u00f0 bornar saman vi\u00f0 m\u00e6lingar ger\u00f0ar me\u00f0 ve\u00f0urathugunarbelgjum og er samsv\u00f6run mj\u00f6g g\u00f3\u00f0.<\/p>\n M\u00e6lingar eru ger\u00f0ar me\u00f0 b\u00fana\u00f0i sem nefnist Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU). Me\u00f0 \u00feessari t\u00e6kni er hitastig lofthj\u00fapsins m\u00e6lt yfir alla j\u00f6r\u00f0ina; jafnt \u00ed bygg\u00f0u b\u00f3li sem ey\u00f0im\u00f6rkum, heimskautum, fjallendi og \u00e1 hafi \u00fati. \u00c1 hverjum s\u00f3larhring eru ger\u00f0ar 30.000 m\u00e6lingar. \u00deetta er me\u00f0 “heitari” m\u00e1lum \u00ed loftlagsfr\u00e6\u00f0um, \u00fev\u00ed reynist \u00feetta r\u00e9tt \u00fearf a\u00f0 endursko\u00f0a allar kenningar um hitun vegna \u00e1hrifa fr\u00e1 koltv\u00eds\u00fdringi. \u00dear sem \u00feetta er n\u00fd m\u00e6lia\u00f0fer\u00f0 hefur h\u00fan s\u00e6tt nokkurri tortryggni, en traust v\u00edsindamanna \u00e1 t\u00e6kninni fer vaxandi, og telja margir hana gefa r\u00e9ttari mynd af hitabreytingum lofthj\u00fapsins en hef\u00f0bundnar m\u00e6lingar.<\/p>\n Lausn g\u00e1tunnar \u00ed sj\u00f3nm\u00e1li?<\/strong><\/p>\nEins og fram hefur komi\u00f0 \u00ed d\u00e6munum h\u00e9r a\u00f0 ofan, \u00fe\u00e1 er m\u00e1li\u00f0 ekki einfalt og langt fr\u00e1 \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 menn skilji \u00fea\u00f0 til hl\u00edtar. Erlendis er unni\u00f0 h\u00f6r\u00f0um h\u00f6ndum vi\u00f0 a\u00f0 rannsaka samspil \u00feeirra \u00fe\u00e1tta sem hafa \u00e1hrif \u00e1 breytingar \u00ed hitastigi lofthj\u00faps jar\u00f0ar. Vel er fylgst me\u00f0 s\u00f3linni af j\u00f6r\u00f0u ni\u00f0ri og fr\u00e1 gervihn\u00f6ttum. S\u00f3lstj\u00f6rnur sem l\u00edkjast okkar s\u00f3l eru \u00ed ranns\u00f3kn (Baliunas) og gefa \u00fe\u00e6r til kynna \u00e1\u00feekkar sveiflur og h\u00e9r hefur veri\u00f0 fjalla\u00f0 um (mynd 10). Margt bendir til a\u00f0 lausnin \u00e1 g\u00e1tunni s\u00e9 \u00ed sj\u00f3nm\u00e1li, og \u00feess vegna er ekki r\u00e9tt a\u00f0 flana a\u00f0 neinu. Ekki er \u00f3l\u00edklegt a\u00f0 margir samspilandi \u00fe\u00e6ttir valdi langt\u00edma breytingunum \u00ed ve\u00f0urfari, b\u00e6\u00f0i aukning koltv\u00eds\u00fdrings og breytingar \u00ed virkni s\u00f3lar. Vandam\u00e1li\u00f0 er a\u00f0 greina \u00ed \u00fe\u00e6ttina \u00ed sundur: A\u00f0 hve miklu leyti er hitastigsbreytingin af n\u00e1tt\u00farunnar v\u00f6ldum og a\u00f0 hve miklu leyti af mannav\u00f6ldum?\u00a0Margir v\u00edsindamenn hallast n\u00fa a\u00f0 \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 um helmingur hitastigsh\u00e6kkunarinnar s\u00e9 af v\u00f6ldum breytinga \u00ed \u00fatgeislun s\u00f3lar og um helmingur af mannav\u00f6ldum. Nokkrir \u00feekktir v\u00edsindamenn telja a\u00f0 \u00e1hrif s\u00f3lar geti \u00fe\u00f3 veri\u00f0 mun meiri, og sk\u00fdri a\u00f0 mestu \u00fe\u00e6r ve\u00f0urfarsbreytingar sem m\u00e6lst hafa \u00e1 undanf\u00f6rnum \u00f6ldum og \u00e1ratugum.<\/i><\/p>\n Vandam\u00e1li\u00f0 vi\u00f0 lausn g\u00e1tunnar liggur me\u00f0al annars \u00ed \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 veri\u00f0 er a\u00f0 m\u00e6la mj\u00f6g litla h\u00e6kkun \u00e1 hitastigi \u00ed umhverfi \u00fear sem n\u00e1tt\u00farulegar sveiflur eru a.m.k. jafn miklar og merki\u00f0 sem veri\u00f0 er a\u00f0 leita a\u00f0. \u00dea\u00f0 fl\u00e6kir m\u00e1li\u00f0 enn frekar a\u00f0 ekki eru allir sem treysta \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 mat manna \u00e1 h\u00e6kkun hitastigs s.l. 150 \u00e1ra s\u00e9 r\u00e9tt. Breytingin sem m\u00e6lingar gefa til kynna eru ekki miki\u00f0 meiri en n\u00e1kv\u00e6mni m\u00e6lit\u00e6kjanna sem notu\u00f0 hafa veri\u00f0 fr\u00e1 \u00fev\u00ed er m\u00e6lingar h\u00f3fust. \u00c1hrif fr\u00e1 vaxandi bygg\u00f0 getur einnig skekkt langt\u00edma m\u00e6lingu.<\/p>\n \u00d3skir um skynsamlegar a\u00f0ger\u00f0ir.<\/strong><\/p>\nMargir virtir v\u00edsindamenn hafa undanfari\u00f0 vara\u00f0 eindregi\u00f0 vi\u00f0 \u00feeim hr\u00e6\u00f0slu\u00e1r\u00f3\u00f0ri sem haldi\u00f0 hefur veri\u00f0 fram undanfari\u00f0 af f\u00f3lki sem ekki getur s\u00e9\u00f0 hlutina \u00ed samhengi og einbl\u00ednir \u00e1\u00a0eina<\/i>hugsanlega sk\u00fdringu \u00e1 sveiflum \u00ed hitastigi. \u00deeir vilja fara a\u00f0 \u00f6llu me\u00f0 g\u00e1t og st\u00f3refla ranns\u00f3knir \u00e1 m\u00e1linu. \u00dea\u00f0 er a\u00f0 sj\u00e1lfs\u00f6g\u00f0u nau\u00f0synlegt a\u00f0 skilja vandam\u00e1li\u00f0 \u00e1\u00f0ur en r\u00e1\u00f0ist er \u00ed a\u00f0 r\u00e1\u00f0a b\u00f3t \u00e1 \u00fev\u00ed.<\/p>\n Ef virtir v\u00edsindamenn me\u00f0 \u00fe\u00e1 bestu yfirs\u00fdn sem h\u00e6gt er a\u00f0 hafa eru me\u00f0 \u00e1hyggjur, \u00fe\u00e1 \u00e6ttum vi\u00f0 l\u00edka a\u00f0 hafa \u00e1hyggjur. \u00dea\u00f0 er \u00fe\u00f3 n\u00e6sta v\u00edst a\u00f0 s\u00f3lin \u00e1 eftir a\u00f0 varpa minni yl \u00e1 okkur aftur, og \u00fe\u00e1 mun v\u00e6ntanlega k\u00f3lna nokku\u00f0 aftur, eins og sagan hefur kennt okkur. En vi\u00f0 erum svo flj\u00f3t a\u00f0 gleyma. Hver veit nema innan skamms ver\u00f0i aftur fari\u00f0 a\u00f0 sp\u00e1 n\u00fdrri \u00eds\u00f6ld eins og ger\u00f0ist \u00feegar ve\u00f0ur f\u00f3r k\u00f3lnandi milli 1950 og 1970. \u00de\u00f3 getur vel veri\u00f0 a\u00f0 \u00e1hrif koltv\u00eds\u00fdrings eigi eftir a\u00f0 vinna \u00e1 m\u00f3ti hugsanlegri k\u00f3lnun. T\u00edminn \u00e1 eftir a\u00f0 lei\u00f0a \u00fea\u00f0 \u00ed lj\u00f3s.<\/p>\n \u00cdslensk vefs\u00ed\u00f0a um ve\u00f0urfarsbreytingar.<\/strong><\/p>\nH\u00e9r hefur a\u00f0eins veri\u00f0 stikla\u00f0 \u00e1 mj\u00f6g st\u00f3ru, enda efni\u00f0 mj\u00f6g vi\u00f0amiki\u00f0. \u00c1 vefs\u00ed\u00f0unni\u00a0http:\/\/www.rt.is\/ahb\/sol<\/span><\/b>\u00a0eru fj\u00f6lmargar myndir og gr\u00f6f um \u00feessa hli\u00f0 gr\u00f3\u00f0urh\u00fasavandam\u00e1lsins, \u00e1samt tengingum vi\u00f0 a\u00f0rar vefs\u00ed\u00f0ur sem fjalla um \u00feessi m\u00e1l, \u00fe.\u00e1.m. tenging vi\u00f0 vefs\u00ed\u00f0ur \u00fear sem yfirl\u00fdsingar v\u00edsindamannanna eru birtar \u00ed heild. \u00dear eru m.a. tengingar vi\u00f0 vefs\u00ed\u00f0ur flestra al\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0legra stofnana sem vinna a\u00f0 ranns\u00f3knum \u00e1 ve\u00f0urfarsbreytingum, svo sem \u00e1 vegum Sameinu\u00f0u \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0anna. Einnig er h\u00e6gt a\u00f0 tengjast \u00fea\u00f0an NASA og kynnast \u00feeirra a\u00f0fer\u00f0um og sko\u00f0a m\u00e6lig\u00f6gn. Me\u00f0 hj\u00e1lp veraldarvefsins er au\u00f0velt a\u00f0 kynnast \u00fev\u00ed n\u00fdjasta \u00ed \u00feessum fr\u00e6\u00f0um og r\u00f6kr\u00e6\u00f0um um hva\u00f0 r\u00e9tt s\u00e9 og hva\u00f0 s\u00e9 rangt. Au\u00f0velt er a\u00f0 tengjast erlendum gagnas\u00f6fnum og s\u00e6kja \u00feanga\u00f0 ve\u00f0urfarsg\u00f6gn og g\u00f6gn um s\u00f3lina. \u00deannig er unnt a\u00f0 gera s\u00edna eigin k\u00f6nnun ef vilji er til!<\/p>\nTilgangurinn me\u00f0 \u00feessum skrifum og vefs\u00ed\u00f0unni er ekki a\u00f0 kasta r\u00fdr\u00f0 \u00e1 kenninguna um a\u00f0 aukning koltv\u00eds\u00fdrings valdi hitastigsh\u00e6kkun, heldur a\u00f0 benda \u00e1 a\u00f0 s\u00fa h\u00e6kkun sem vi\u00f0 h\u00f6fum or\u00f0i\u00f0 v\u00f6r vi\u00f0 undanfari\u00f0 er \u00e1 engan h\u00e1tt einst\u00f6k \u00ed s\u00f6gunni; hitastig hefur oft \u00e1\u00f0ur sveiflast jafn miki\u00f0 \u00e1n \u00feess a\u00f0 koltv\u00eds\u00fdringur komi til. Tengslin vi\u00f0 \u00e1hrif s\u00f3larinnar eru mj\u00f6g l\u00edkleg, og vir\u00f0ist fylgnin vi\u00f0 m\u00e6lanlegar breytingar \u00ed s\u00f3linni mj\u00f6g greinileg. \u00deessi hli\u00f0 m\u00e1lanna hefur fengi\u00f0 t\u00f6luver\u00f0a umfj\u00f6llun erlendis, s\u00e9rstaklega \u00ed Bandar\u00edkjunum. Einnig hafa Danir veri\u00f0 duglegir vi\u00f0 a\u00f0 fjalla um tengsl s\u00f3lar og ve\u00f0urfars, enda eiga \u00feeir mj\u00f6g f\u00e6ra v\u00edsindamenn \u00e1 \u00fev\u00ed svi\u00f0i.<\/p>\n A\u00f0 sj\u00e1lfs\u00f6g\u00f0u er nau\u00f0synlegt a\u00f0 l\u00edta til allra \u00fe\u00e1tta sem skipt geta m\u00e1li vi\u00f0 ranns\u00f3knir \u00e1 ve\u00f0urfarsbreytingum og l\u00e1ta ekki stj\u00f3rnast af ford\u00f3mum og tilfinningum. Augu v\u00edsindamanna hafa beinst miki\u00f0 a\u00f0 samspili hitafars og reglubundinna breytinga \u00ed s\u00f3linni. A\u00f0 \u00f6llum l\u00edkindum munum vi\u00f0 fr\u00e9tta miki\u00f0 fr\u00e1 \u00feessum v\u00edgst\u00f6\u00f0vum \u00e1 n\u00e6stu \u00e1rum.<\/p>\n Vonandi vekur \u00feessi grein fleiri spurningar en h\u00fan hefur svara\u00f0. Ef svo er, \u00fe\u00e1 er tilganginum n\u00e1\u00f0!<\/p>\n (Myndin um samspil hitastigs \u00e1 j\u00f6r\u00f0inni fr\u00e1 1740 og virkni s\u00f3lar er ger\u00f0 eftir myndum \u00ed Sky & Telescope og The Astrophysical Journal; greinar eftir Dr. Sallie Baliunas og Dr. Willie Soon sem eru v\u00edsindamenn hj\u00e1 Harward-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics og Mount Wilson Institute. Birting er me\u00f0 leyfi Dr. Baliunas.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Myndin sem s\u00fdnir samband hitastig jar\u00f0ar og breytingar \u00ed virkni s\u00f3lar fr\u00e1 landn\u00e1mi er unnin upp \u00far grein Dr. Bradley E. Schaefer pr\u00f3fessors vi\u00f0 Yale h\u00e1sk\u00f3la \u00ed t\u00edmaritinu Sky & Telescope og birt me\u00f0 leyfi hans. Einnig er stu\u00f0st vi\u00f0 ranns\u00f3knir Dr. J. Eddy \u00e1 fr\u00e1viki C-14 sams\u00e6ta).<\/p>\n \u00c1HB<\/p>\n —<\/center>NI\u00d0URLAG<\/strong>
\neftir Halld\u00f3r J\u00f3nsson verkfr\u00e6\u00f0ing<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\u00c9g er b\u00f3ndi og allt mitt \u00e1
\nundir s\u00f3l og regni.<\/i><\/span><\/p>\nSvo m\u00e6lti Klettafjallask\u00e1ldi\u00f0 og \u00ed v\u00ed\u00f0ari skilningi er \u00feetta \u00fea\u00f0, sem allt vort mannl\u00edf byggist \u00e1. \u00c1n s\u00f3larorkunnar og vatnsins erum v\u00e9r vi\u00f0 menn l\u00edtils megnugir.<\/span><\/p>\nEn v\u00e9r getum ekki lifa\u00f0 \u00e1 \u00feessu tvennu \u00f3myndbreyttu. Vi\u00f0 ver\u00f0um a\u00f0 breyta \u00feessu \u00ed f\u00e6\u00f0u me\u00f0 einum e\u00f0a \u00f6\u00f0rum h\u00e6tti. J\u00f6r\u00f0ina \u00e1 mannkyni\u00f0 saman, um \u00fea\u00f0 er ekki deilt.<\/span><\/p>\n\u00c1 \u00feessari \u00f6ld hafa miklar h\u00f6rmungar gengi\u00f0 yfir mannkyn af v\u00f6ldum st\u00f3rasannleiksmanna. Einokun hugsunar er hi\u00f0 skelfilegasta form har\u00f0stj\u00f3rnar, sem hugsast getur. \u00dev\u00ed er \u00fea\u00f0 ill ath\u00f6fn, a\u00f0 sitja \u00ed f\u00edlabeinsturni s\u00ednum og krefjast \u00feess a\u00f0 f\u00e1t\u00e6kt f\u00f3lk h\u00e6tti a\u00f0 bjarga s\u00e9r, \u00feegar \u00fea\u00f0 \u00e1 ekki annars \u00farkosti. \u00dea\u00f0 var til a\u00f0 mynda \u00f6murlegt a\u00f0 koma til Kulusuk og sj\u00e1 hvernig \u00f3grundu\u00f0 \u00e6singamennska hinnar au\u00f0ugu Birgittu Bardot gat ver\u00f0fellt hinu einu k\u00fa f\u00e1t\u00e6ka mannsins \u00fear, – selinn, – svo a\u00f0 f\u00f3lkinu \u00fear voru allar bjargir banna\u00f0ar. Og \u00fe\u00f3 a\u00f0 fj\u00f6r\u00f0urinn v\u00e6ri i\u00f0andi af laxi, \u00fe\u00e1 m\u00e1ttu frumbyggjar ekki vei\u00f0a hann vegna samninga sem Danir h\u00f6f\u00f0u gert vi\u00f0 r\u00edka sportvei\u00f0imenn .<\/span><\/p>\nHvernig getur Bandar\u00edkjastj\u00f3rn til d\u00e6mis \u00e6tlast til, a\u00f0 f\u00e1t\u00e6kir b\u00e6ndur \u00ed K\u00f3lumb\u00edu neiti s\u00e9r um a\u00f0 r\u00e6kta \u00fe\u00e1 einu afur\u00f0, sem Bandar\u00edkjamenn vilja af \u00feeim kaupa, \u00e1n \u00feess a\u00f0 eitthva\u00f0 komi \u00ed sta\u00f0inn ? Hvernig geta hinar au\u00f0ugu i\u00f0na\u00f0ar\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0ir heims krafist \u00feess, a\u00f0 \u00cdslendingar byggi ekki fleiri \u00e1lver vegna losunar koltv\u00eds\u00fdrings \u00e1n \u00feess a\u00f0 eitthva\u00f0 komi \u00ed sta\u00f0inn ? \u00dearf ekki \u00ed \u00fev\u00ed samhengi a\u00f0 huga a\u00f0 \u00fev\u00ed, a\u00f0 jar\u00f0vegsey\u00f0ing \u00e1 \u00cdslandi bindur meiri koltv\u00eds\u00fdring en allur fiskiskipaflotinn, b\u00edlarnir, eldfj\u00f6llin og komin og \u00f3komin \u00e1lver losa? Getum v\u00e9r \u00cdslendingar leyft oss anna\u00f0 en a\u00f0 heyra fyrst allar hli\u00f0ar hvers m\u00e1ls svo sem ger\u00f0u g\u00f6fugir fornmenn?<\/span><\/p>\nVer\u00f0um v\u00e9r \u00cdslendingar ekki a\u00f0 l\u00edta til \u00feess, hva\u00f0 Vostock \u00edskjarnarnir segja oss um koltv\u00eds\u00edringss\u00f6gu jar\u00f0ar, \u00e1\u00f0ur en v\u00e9r f\u00f6rum a\u00f0 taka \u00fe\u00e1tt \u00ed heimsverzlun um koltv\u00eds\u00fdringskv\u00f3ta ? E\u00f0a \u00fe\u00e1 undirrita sam\u00feykktir um aflei\u00f0ingar kenninga um gr\u00f3\u00f0urh\u00fasa\u00e1hrif \u00e1 j\u00f6r\u00f0u, \u00e1n \u00feess a\u00f0 gefa gaum a\u00f0 or\u00f0um \u00feeirra Dr. Feynmanns og \u00c1rna Magn\u00fassonar um almennt e\u00f0li kenninga ?<\/span><\/p>\nVar v\u00edsindalegur grunnur \u00feeirra gr\u00f3\u00f0urh\u00fasamanna \u00ed Kyoto n\u00e6gilega traustur til \u00feess, a\u00f0 v\u00e9r, -n\u00falifandi \u00cdslendingar-, s\u00e9um til \u00feess b\u00e6rir, a\u00f0 \u00e1kvar\u00f0a um l\u00edfskj\u00f6r \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0ar vorrar um n\u00e6stu aldir?<\/span><\/p>\n | | | | |
![\"Morgunbla\u00f0sgrein](\"http:\/\/agust.net\/sol\/sol-myndir\/groduhusagrein-mbl.jpg\")
<\/center><\/p>\n![\"\"](\"http:\/\/agust.net\/sol\/sol-myndir\/bline.gif\")
<\/p>\n![\"M\u00e1lverk](\"http:\/\/agust.net\/sol\/sol-myndir\/maunderminpainting.jpg\")
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n![\"S\u00f3lsveiflan](\"http:\/\/agust.net\/sol\/sol-myndir\/slide20-small.jpg\")
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n![\"Hitafar](\"http:\/\/agust.net\/sol\/sol-myndir\/800k-1k.gif\")
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n![\"Kenning](\"http:\/\/agust.net\/sol\/sol-myndir\/milankowitch.gif\")
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n![\"J\u00f6r\u00f0in](\"http:\/\/agust.net\/sol\/sol-myndir\/geimvedur.jpg\")
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n![\"MSU-1998\"](\"http:\/\/192.168.1.70\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/MSU-1998.png\")
<\/a><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n![\"\"](\"http:\/\/agust.net\/sol\/sol-myndir\/balloon-msu.gif\")
<\/center>M\u00e6lingum ber mj\u00f6g vel saman vi\u00f0 m\u00e6lingar fr\u00e1 fj\u00f6lda ve\u00f0urathugunarst\u00f6\u00f0va sem senda reglulega upp ve\u00f0urathugunarbelgi. Margir telja a\u00f0 \u00feessi m\u00e6lit\u00e6kni gefi r\u00e9ttari mynd af lofthj\u00fapnum en m\u00e6lingar \u00e1 j\u00f6r\u00f0u ni\u00f0ri, sem a\u00f0eins n\u00e1 til hluta jar\u00f0ar.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"http:\/\/agust.net\/sol\/sol-myndir\/sunlike-stars.gif\")
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n![\"S\u00f3lblettir](\"http:\/\/agust.net\/sol\/sol-myndir\/sunspots.gif\")
<\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n![\"Teller](\"http:\/\/agust.net\/sol\/sol-myndir\/teller-3.jpg\")
Ma\u00f0ur er nefndur\u00a0Dr. Edward Teller<\/b>; oft kalla\u00f0ur fa\u00f0ir vetnissprengjunnar. Teller, sem f\u00e6ddist \u00ed Ungverjalandi 1908, lauk doktorsn\u00e1mi \u00ed G\u00f6ttingen 1930 undir handlei\u00f0slu Werners Heisenberg og starfa\u00f0i um t\u00edma me\u00f0 Niels Bohr \u00ed Kaupmannah\u00f6fn. Hann fluttist til Bandar\u00edkjanna 1935 og ger\u00f0ist \u00fe\u00e1 pr\u00f3fessor vi\u00f0 George Washington University. Hann vann s\u00ed\u00f0ar me\u00f0 m\u00f6nnum eins og Einstein, Oppenheimer og Fermi. Hann er me\u00f0al \u00feekktustu v\u00edsindamanna heims og hefur hloti\u00f0 margar vi\u00f0urkenningar svo sem “Albert Einstein Award”. \u00c1 \u00feessum myndum s\u00e9st meistarinn \u00e1 s\u00ednum bestu \u00e1rum, og \u00feegar aldurinn er farinn a\u00f0 f\u00e6rast yfir hann. Hann stendur \u00fe\u00e1 vi\u00f0 minnismerki af sj\u00e1lfum s\u00e9r!<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"http:\/\/agust.net\/sol\/sol-myndir\/teller_k.jpg\")
Kosturinn vi\u00f0 a\u00f0ger\u00f0ir sem \u00feessar eru a\u00f0 \u00fe\u00e6r vinna \u00e1 m\u00f3ti h\u00e6kkun hitastigs \u00e1 j\u00f6r\u00f0u, hvort sem \u00fe\u00e6r eru af v\u00f6ldum koltv\u00eds\u00fdringsh\u00e6kkunar, e\u00f0a bara duttlungar \u00ed s\u00f3lu. Reynist hi\u00f0 s\u00ed\u00f0arnefnda vera helsta \u00e1st\u00e6\u00f0a hitastigsh\u00e6kkunar, og s\u00f3lin fari a\u00f0 k\u00f3lna aftur, \u00fe\u00e1 \u00fearf ekki anna\u00f0 a\u00f0 gera en taka ofan s\u00f3lgleraugu jar\u00f0ar. \u00dea\u00f0 t\u00e6ki j\u00f6r\u00f0ina ekki langan t\u00edma a\u00f0 n\u00e1 jafnv\u00e6gi aftur, svona eitt til tv\u00f6 \u00e1r eins og eftir eldgos.<\/p>\n![\"Hiti](\"http:\/\/agust.net\/sol\/sol-myndir\/reykjavi.gif\")
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n![\"Hiti](\"http:\/\/agust.net\/sol\/sol-myndir\/temp-usa-1895-1995.gif\")
<\/center>Hvernig \u00e6tli standi \u00e1 \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 me\u00f0alhiti \u00ed Bandar\u00edkjunum s\u00fdnir ekki s\u00f6mu h\u00e6kkun hitastigs og heimurinn allur? E\u00f0a \u00fe\u00e1 hitaferill fyrir Reykjav\u00edk? Eru sumar ve\u00f0urst\u00f6\u00f0var \u00e1rei\u00f0anlegri en a\u00f0rar?<\/p>\n![\"Aukinn](\"http:\/\/agust.net\/sol\/sol-myndir\/co2_oranges_1.gif\")
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n![\"Vostok](\"http:\/\/agust.net\/sol\/sol-myndir\/co2-temp-time.gif\")
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n![\"IPCC](\"http:\/\/agust.net\/sol\/sol-myndir\/ipcc-trend.gif\")
Sp\u00e1d\u00f3mar IPCC eru a\u00f0 nokkru leyti bygg\u00f0ir \u00e1 sp\u00e1d\u00f3mum hermil\u00edkana. \u00deekking manna \u00e1 vandam\u00e1lin batnar \u00e1r fr\u00e1 \u00e1ri. H\u00e9r m\u00e1 sj\u00e1 hvernig sp\u00e1d\u00f3mar IPCC hafa veri\u00f0 a\u00f0 breytast \u00e1 s\u00ed\u00f0asta \u00e1ratug. Hverju \u00e6tli \u00feeir muni sp\u00e1 \u00ed n\u00e6stu sk\u00fdrslu sem v\u00e6ntanlega kemur \u00fat um aldam\u00f3tin?<\/p>\n![\"Richard](\"http:\/\/agust.net\/sol\/sol-myndir\/richard_feynman.jpg\")
<\/p>\n![\"The](\"http:\/\/agust.net\/sol\/sol-myndir\/hoyt.jpg\")
\u00a0Role of the Sun in Climate Change”<\/b>, og er eftir v\u00edsindamennina Douglas V. Hoyt (Senior Scientist, Hughes\/STX Corporation) og Kenneth Schatten (Program Director for Solar Terrestrial Research, National Science Foundation). B\u00f3kin er mj\u00f6g vel skrifu\u00f0.\u00a0B\u00f3kina \u00e6ttu allir a\u00f0 lesa sem vilja kynna s\u00e9r m\u00e1li\u00f0.<\/i>\u00a0H\u00fan virkar nokku\u00f0 fr\u00e6\u00f0ileg \u00e1 k\u00f6flum, en er au\u00f0lesin og au\u00f0skilin.![\"The](\"http:\/\/agust.net\/sol\/sol-myndir\/themanicsun2.jpg\")
og Egil Friis-Christensen o.fl. um \u00e1hrif s\u00f3lvindsins \u00e1 sk\u00fdjafar.