\nUpphaflega 14\/8 2015<\/span>
\nS\u00ed\u00f0ast breytt 20\/8 2015<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n
\u00cd fr\u00e9ttum n\u00fdlega var fjalla\u00f0 um a\u00f0 s\u00f3lblettatala undanfarinna \u00e1ratuga og alda hef\u00f0i veri\u00f0 endursko\u00f0u\u00f0 og eftir breytinguna virtist sem breytingar \u00ed s\u00f3lvirkni \u00e6tti ekki \u00fe\u00e1tt \u00ed h\u00e6kkun hitastigs sem var\u00f0 \u00e1 s\u00ed\u00f0ustu \u00e1ratugum n\u00fdli\u00f0innar aldar. Sem d\u00e6mi um umfj\u00f6llun m\u00e1 nefna pistil \u00e1 hinum \u00e1g\u00e6ta \u00a0Stj\u00f6rnufr\u00e6\u00f0ivef\u00a0<\/a>sem nefnist:\u00a0\u00a0“Lei\u00f0r\u00e9tt s\u00f3lblettatala bendir til a\u00f0 ekki s\u00e9 h\u00e6gt rekja loftslagsbreytingar n\u00fat\u00edmans til aukinnar s\u00f3lvirkni<\/a>“.<\/span>\u00a0 Sj\u00e1 einnig fr\u00e9tt \u00ed Morgunbla\u00f0inu: “S\u00f3lvirkni breytti ekki loftslagi<\/a><\/strong>“, og fr\u00e9tt \u00ed \u00a0Astronomy Now,<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong>en sama fr\u00e9ttin f\u00f3r v\u00ed\u00f0a.<\/p>\n N\u00fa vill svo til a\u00f0 menn hafa \u00fdmsar a\u00f0rar a\u00f0fer\u00f0ir en talningu s\u00f3lbletta til a\u00f0 meta s\u00f3lvirknina eins og fyrirs\u00f6gn \u00feessa pistils ber me\u00f0 s\u00e9r. M\u00e1 \u00fear nefna:<\/p>\n Allt \u00feetta gefur til kynna a\u00f0 s\u00f3lvirknin er ekki eins st\u00f6\u00f0ug og n\u00fdjustu fr\u00e9ttir gefa til kynna og a\u00f0 s\u00f3lin hafi veri\u00f0 \u00f3venju virk undanfarna \u00e1ratugi.<\/span>\u00a0\u00a0\u00deetta vissu flestir sam hafa sm\u00e1 vit \u00e1\u00a0stj\u00f6rnufr\u00e6\u00f0i og illskiljanlegt a\u00f0 \u00feetta hafi ekki komi\u00f0 fram \u00ed fj\u00f6lmi\u00f0lum undanfari\u00f0. Um \u00feetta\u00a0ver\u00f0ur fjalla\u00f0 h\u00e9r \u00ed \u00f6rstuttu m\u00e1li me\u00f0 hj\u00e1lp nokkurra mynda, auk \u00feess sem r\u00fdnt ver\u00f0ur \u00ed sk\u00fdrslu nefndarinnar sem vann a\u00f0 lei\u00f0r\u00e9ttingu s\u00f3lblettatalnanna. Ne\u00f0st\u00a0\u00e1 s\u00ed\u00f0unni\u00a0er tilv\u00edsun \u00ed \u00edtarefni.<\/p>\n Fyrst sm\u00e1vegis um \u00e1st\u00e6\u00f0ur breytinganna:\u00a0<\/span>Mat \u00e1 fj\u00f6lda s\u00f3lbletta er nokkurs konar skynmat \u00fear sem fari\u00f0 er eftir \u00e1kve\u00f0num reglum. \u00cd t\u00edmans r\u00e1s hafa menn haft yfir a\u00f0 r\u00e1\u00f0a misg\u00f3\u00f0um t\u00e6kjum til a\u00f0 fylgjast me\u00f0 s\u00f3linni, og mati\u00f0 r\u00e6\u00f0st einnig af \u00fev\u00ed hvernig athugandinn t\u00falkar myndirnar sem teknar hafa veri\u00f0 e\u00f0a teikna\u00f0ar af s\u00f3linni. \u00a0Mj\u00f6g margir athugendur hafa komi\u00f0 a\u00f0 talningu s\u00f3lbletta s\u00ed\u00f0astli\u00f0in 400 \u00e1r svo h\u00e6tt er vi\u00f0 a\u00f0 misr\u00e6mi hafi or\u00f0i\u00f0. Af \u00feessum \u00e1st\u00e6\u00f0um var talin \u00e1st\u00e6\u00f0a til a\u00f0 samr\u00e6ma g\u00f6gn fr\u00e1 hinum \u00fdmsu t\u00edmum. Sk\u00fdrslu nefndarinnar sem anna\u00f0ist \u00feessa vinnu m\u00e1 n\u00e1lgast h\u00e9r:\u00a0Revisiting the sunspot number<\/a>\u00a0 \u00a0e\u00f0a h\u00e9r<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n \u00dea\u00f0 sem h\u00e9r er skrifa\u00f0 er ekki gagnr\u00fdni \u00e1 sj\u00e1lfa sk\u00fdrsluna e\u00f0a ni\u00f0urst\u00f6\u00f0ur hennar, heldur gagnr\u00fdni \u00e1 hvernig h\u00fan hefur veri\u00f0 t\u00falku\u00f0 \u00ed fr\u00e9ttum og \u00e1 m\u00f6rgum vefs\u00ed\u00f0um.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n \u00de\u00f3 v\u00edsa\u00f0 s\u00e9 \u00e1 vefs\u00ed\u00f0u fr\u00e9ttar \u00e1 Stj\u00f6rnufr\u00e6\u00f0ivefnum, \u00fe\u00e1 er \u00fea\u00f0 alls ekki gagnr\u00fdni \u00e1 \u00fe\u00e1 \u00e1g\u00e6tu s\u00ed\u00f0u, heldur eing\u00f6ngu sem d\u00e6mi til \u00fatsk\u00fdringar.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n S\u00f3lsveiflan:\u00a0<\/span>\u00c1 myndinni h\u00e9r fyrir ne\u00f0an m\u00e1 sj\u00e1 eldri \u00fatg\u00e1fu ni\u00f0urst\u00f6\u00f0u athugana \u00e1 fj\u00f6lda s\u00f3lbletta s\u00ed\u00f0astli\u00f0in 400 \u00e1r. \u00a0\u00c1 myndina vantar reyndar s\u00ed\u00f0ustu 15 \u00e1r og \u00fear me\u00f0 s\u00f3lsveiflu 23 og s\u00f3lsveiflu 24 sem n\u00fa er h\u00e1lfnu\u00f0. T\u00edmabili\u00f0 sem merkt er Maunder Minimum var \u00e1 s\u00ed\u00f0ari hluta 17. aldar, s\u00f3lblettir voru f\u00e1ir og ve\u00f0urfari\u00f0 kalt. Haf\u00eds vi\u00f0 \u00cdsland og mikill \u00eds \u00e1 Thames. \u00a0Dalton l\u00e1gmarki\u00f0 var um 1810, en \u00fe\u00e1 var ekki eins kalt og me\u00f0an \u00e1 Maunder l\u00e1gmarkinu st\u00f3\u00f0, en svalt \u00fe\u00f3. \u00a0Um 1970 m\u00e1 greina sm\u00e1 l\u00e6g\u00f0 \u00ed fj\u00f6lda s\u00f3lbletta sem vi\u00f0 g\u00e6tum tengt vi\u00f0 \u00fea\u00f0 sem vi\u00f0 k\u00f6llum stundum kal\u00e1rin e\u00f0a haf\u00eds\u00e1rin, en lengst til h\u00e6gri er t\u00edmabil sem nefnist Modern Maximum, en s\u00ed\u00f0astli\u00f0inn aldarfj\u00f3r\u00f0ung hefur veri\u00f0 \u00f3venju hl\u00fdtt .<\/p>\n \u00dea\u00f0 er \u00feetta \u201eModern Maximum\u201c sem athyglin hefur beinst a\u00f0 \u00ed umfj\u00f6llun fj\u00f6lmi\u00f0la undanfari\u00f0 og athyglinni einnig beint a\u00f0 h\u00e9r.<\/p>\n Eldri framsetning s\u00f3lblettasveiflunnar fr\u00e1 u.\u00fe.b. 1600 til 2010.<\/p><\/div>\n <\/p>\n \u00c1 n\u00e6stu mynd er hin n\u00fdja framsetning \u00e1 fj\u00f6lda s\u00f3lbletta samanbori\u00f0 vi\u00f0 hina eldri. \u00a0 Rau\u00f0i ferillinn er s\u00e1 eldri, en bl\u00e1i s\u00e1 n\u00fdi.\u00a0Taki\u00f0 eftir a\u00f0 ferillinn byrjar vi\u00f0 \u00e1ri\u00f0 \u00a01750 og endar vi\u00f0 2000. \u00a0\u00c1 ferilinn vantar b\u00e6\u00f0i fyrstu t\u00e6plega 150 \u00e1rin og s\u00ed\u00f0ustu 15 \u00e1rin. Ferillinn n\u00e6r a\u00f0eins yfir bl\u00e1a hluta ferilsins h\u00e9r fyrir ofan, \u00fe.e. rau\u00f0a hlutann Maunder Minimum vantar. Eins og sj\u00e1 m\u00e1, \u00fe\u00e1 er n\u00fdi bl\u00e1i ferillinn or\u00f0inn miklu jafnari en s\u00e1 eldri rau\u00f0i. Einhverjir hafa dregi\u00f0 \u00fe\u00e1 \u00e1lyktun a\u00f0 \u00fea\u00f0 merki a\u00f0 virkni s\u00f3lar geti ekki haft \u00e1hrif \u00e1 hl\u00fdnunina undanfarna \u00e1ratugi, \u00fe\u00f3 ekki s\u00e9 minnst \u00e1 \u00fea\u00f0 \u00ed sk\u00fdrslu nefndarinnar\u00a0Revisiting the sunspot number<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u00cd sk\u00fdrslunni er bent \u00e1, a\u00f0 \u00fe\u00f3 svo a\u00f0 fj\u00f6ldi s\u00f3lbletta \u00ed s\u00f3lsveiflum fyrr \u00e1 t\u00edmum hafi fj\u00f6lga\u00f0 (topparnir hafa h\u00e6kka\u00f0 \u00fe\u00e1), \u00fe\u00e1 hefur fj\u00f6ldi h\u00e1rra toppa veri\u00f0 \u00f3venju mikill a\u00f0 undaf\u00f6rnu. N\u00e1nar \u00ed ni\u00f0urlagi \u00feessa pistils.<\/p>\n Sko\u00f0um m\u00e1li\u00f0 n\u00e1nar.<\/p>\n Gamla (rau\u00f0) og n\u00fdja (bl\u00e1) s\u00f3lblettatalan<\/p><\/div>\n <\/p>\n \u00c1\u00f0ur en lengra er haldi\u00f0 er r\u00e9tt a\u00f0 sko\u00f0a hvernig n\u00fdi ferillinn l\u00edtur \u00fat ef vi\u00f0 hann er b\u00e6tt 15 s\u00ed\u00f0ustu \u00e1runum (rautt), en \u00fe\u00e1 er myndin nokku\u00f0 \u00f6nnur. \u00a0Vi\u00f0 sj\u00e1um hvenig s\u00f3lvirknin fer l\u00e6kkandi s\u00ed\u00f0ustu \u00e1r.<\/p>\n \u00cd sk\u00fdrslunni er bent \u00e1, a\u00f0 \u00fe\u00f3 svo a\u00f0 fj\u00f6ldi s\u00f3lbletta \u00ed s\u00f3lsveiflum fyrr \u00e1 t\u00edmum hafi fj\u00f6lga\u00f0 (topparnir hafa h\u00e6kka\u00f0 \u00fe\u00e1), \u00fe\u00e1 hefur fj\u00f6ldi h\u00e1rra toppa veri\u00f0 \u00f3venju mikill a\u00f0 undaf\u00f6rnu. N\u00e1nar \u00ed ni\u00f0urlagi \u00feessa pistils.<\/p>\n N\u00fdrri s\u00f3lblettat\u00f6lur, en h\u00e9r hefur veri\u00f0 b\u00e6tt vi\u00f0 me\u00f0 rau\u00f0u s\u00f3lsveiflum 23 og 24 sem vanta\u00f0i.<\/p><\/div>\n <\/p>\n Vi\u00f0 sj\u00e1um betur \u00fer\u00f3un s\u00f3lsveiflunnar s\u00ed\u00f0ustu \u00e1ratugina \u00e1 n\u00e6stu mynd. \u00a0\u00a0S\u00ed\u00f0asta sveifla (k\u00f6llu\u00f0 n\u00famer 24) sem er n\u00fana r\u00famlega h\u00e1lfnu\u00f0 er mun l\u00e6gri en \u00fe\u00e6r sem voru \u00ed h\u00e1marki um 1980 og 1990. \u00a0H\u00fan er jafnvel l\u00e6gri en s\u00fa sem var \u00ed h\u00e1marki um 1970.<\/p>\n \u00der\u00f3un s\u00f3lsveiflunnar s\u00ed\u00f0ustu \u00e1ratugina<\/p><\/div>\n <\/p>\n A\u00f0 telja fj\u00f6lda s\u00f3lbletta er a\u00f0eins ein lei\u00f0 af nokkrum til a\u00f0 meta virkni s\u00f3lar. \u00a0 \u00a0Sko\u00f0um nokkrar \u00feeirra:<\/span><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n \u00c1hrif s\u00f3lar \u00e1 jar\u00f0segulsvi\u00f0i\u00f0:<\/span><\/p>\n Fr\u00e1 s\u00f3linn streymir \u00ed s\u00edfellu svokalla\u00f0ur s\u00f3lvindur sem er segulmagna\u00f0 \u00a0rafagnagas (plasma). \u00a0Styrkur s\u00f3lvindsins fer eftir virkni s\u00f3lar. \u00a0 \u00deegar s\u00f3lvindurinn fer fram hj\u00e1 j\u00f6r\u00f0inni truflar hann jar\u00f0segulsvi\u00f0i\u00f0, mis miki\u00f0 eftir \u00fev\u00ed hve hann er \u00f6flugur og hve s\u00f3lin er virk. Einn m\u00e6likvar\u00f0i er svokalla\u00f0ur\u00a0“aa geomagnetic index”<\/em>. \u00c1 myndinni n\u00e1 sj\u00e1 hvernig \u00feessi aa-index hefur breyst fr\u00e1 \u00e1rinu 1868 til 2015. \u00a0\u00dearna sj\u00e1um vi\u00f0 l\u00e6g\u00f0 um 1970 (\u00e1 sama t\u00edma og haf\u00eds\u00e1rin) og h\u00e6\u00f0 beggja vegna, \u00a0b\u00e6\u00f0i um mi\u00f0ja s\u00ed\u00f0ustu \u00f6ld og \u00ed lok aldarinnar, en \u00ed b\u00e6\u00f0i skuptin\u00a0var s\u00e6milega hl\u00fdtt hj\u00e1 okkur jar\u00f0arb\u00faum. Fr\u00e1 \u00fev\u00ed um 2005 hefur or\u00f0i\u00f0 breyting \u00e1 og ferillinn falli\u00f0 snarlega. S\u00f3lvirknin hefur minnka\u00f0 og \u00fear me\u00f0 segultruflanirnar. AA-index. Truflanir \u00ed segulsvi\u00f0i jar\u00f0ar af v\u00f6ldumn breytilegs s\u00f3lvinds.<\/p><\/div>\n <\/p>\n \u00c1hrif s\u00f3lar \u00e1 \u00a0sams\u00e6tur frumefnanna beryll\u00edums (beryll\u00edn) og kolefnis.<\/span>\u00a0S\u00f3lvindurinn sem \u00e1\u00f0ur var minnst \u00e1 og er breytilegur eftir virkni s\u00f3lar hefur \u00f6nnur \u00e1hrif. Alls sta\u00f0ar a\u00f0 utan \u00far geimnum skella svokalla\u00f0ir geimgeislar (cosmic rays) \u00e1 j\u00f6r\u00f0inni. S\u00f3lvindurinn skermar \u00fe\u00f3 a\u00f0 nokkru leyti j\u00f6r\u00f0ina af, \u00a0\u00feannig a\u00f0 \u00feessir geimgeislar komast s\u00ed\u00f0ur ni\u00f0ur \u00e1 yfirbor\u00f0 jar\u00f0ar, en \u00fear sem s\u00f3lvindurinn er breytilegur ver\u00f0a \u00feessir geimgeislar s\u00f6mulei\u00f0ir breytilegir. Mikil s\u00f3lvirkni e\u00f0a mikill s\u00f3lvindur hefur \u00fe\u00e1 \u00ed f\u00f6r me\u00f0 s\u00e9r minni geimgeisla. Geimgeislar hafa \u00feau \u00e1hrif \u00e1 frumefnin beryll\u00edn<\/a> (beryll\u00edum) og kolefni\u00a0a\u00f0 sams\u00e6tur e\u00f0a \u00eds\u00f3t\u00f3par myndast. \u00deessar sams\u00e6tur nefnast beryll\u00edum-10<\/a> (skammstafa\u00f0\u00a010Be) og carbon-14\u00a0(skammstafa\u00f0\u00a014C). Beryllium-10<\/a> finnst \u00ed \u00edskj\u00f6rnum en kolefni-14<\/a> \u00ed \u00e1rhringjum trj\u00e1a. \u00c1 myndinni h\u00e9r fyrir ne\u00f0an s\u00fdnir bl\u00e1i ferillinn hvernig hlutfallslegt magn beryll\u00edum-10 sams\u00e6turnar hefur\u00a0\u00fer\u00f3ast fr\u00e1 um \u00fea\u00f0 bi\u00f0 1430 til 2000. \u00a0\u00dearna s\u00e9st svart \u00e1 hv\u00edtu (reyndar bl\u00e1tt \u00e1 hv\u00edtu) hvernig s\u00f3lvirknin hefur breyst og hvernig h\u00fan hefur veri\u00f0 \u00ed h\u00e1marki hin s\u00ed\u00f0ustu \u00e1r. \u00a0S\u00f3lvirknin hefur sem sagt veri\u00f0 \u00ed h\u00e6stu h\u00e6\u00f0um \u00e1 s\u00ed\u00f0ustu \u00e1ratugum n\u00fdli\u00f0ainnar aldar. Rau\u00f0i ferillinn er\u00a0s\u00f3lblettatalan samkv\u00e6mt eldri framsetningunni.<\/p>\n Bl\u00e1tt: Fr\u00e1vik \u00ed magni beryllium-10 sams\u00e6tunnar (10-Be) t\u00edmabili\u00f0 fr\u00e1 1400 til 2000. <\/p>\n <\/p>\n N\u00e6sti ferill s\u00fdnir okkur aftur \u00e1 m\u00f3ti hlutfallslegan styrk kolefnis-14 sams\u00e6tunnar og hvernig hann hefur breyst \u00e1 t\u00edmabilinu um 900 til 2000. \u00a0\u00deessi ferill er m\u00e6likvar\u00f0i \u00e1 virkni s\u00f3lar fr\u00e1 landn\u00e1mi til okkar dags. Taki\u00f0 eftir hinum mismunandi l\u00e1gm\u00f6rkum og h\u00e1m\u00f6rkum sem geti\u00f0 er \u00e1 myndinni. Me\u00f0 m\u00e6lingum \u00e1 hlutfallslegu magni sams\u00e6tna frumefna m\u00e1 sem sagt rekja virkni s\u00f3lar langt aftur \u00ed t\u00edma, \u00fe.e. \u00e1ratugi, aldir og \u00fe\u00fasaldir.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Fr\u00e1vik \u00ed magni kolefnis sams\u00e6tunnar (14C) t\u00edmabili\u00f0 fr\u00e1 900 til 2000.<\/p><\/div>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n Breytileg \u00fatgeislun rad\u00ed\u00f3bylgna: \u00datgeislun rad\u00ed\u00f3bylgna fr\u00e1 s\u00f3linni 1948-2014<\/p><\/div>\n <\/p>\n Sm\u00e1 \u00fat\u00fard\u00far til a\u00f0 hv\u00edla hugann:<\/span> En hvernig var \u00e1standi\u00f0 \u00e1 Englandi?<\/p>\n M\u00e1lverki\u00f0 er eftir Abraham Hondius (1630-1695). Museum of London. Fleiri myndir af “Frost Fairs” \u00e1 Thames eru til. Taki\u00f0 eftir \u00edsj\u00f6kunum, sem vir\u00f0ast um h\u00e1lfur annar metri \u00e1 \u00feykkt. Hvernig stendur \u00e1 \u00feessum \u00f3sk\u00f6pum? Eitt kaldasta t\u00edmabil Litlu \u00edsaldarinnar svok\u00f6llu\u00f0u st\u00f3\u00f0 yfir me\u00f0an virkni s\u00f3lar var \u00ed l\u00e1gmaki sem kallast Maunder minimum. \u00dea\u00f0 st\u00f3\u00f0 yfir um \u00fea\u00f0 bil fr\u00e1 1645 til 1715. \u00de\u00e1 s\u00e1ust hvorki s\u00f3lblettir n\u00e9 nor\u00f0urlj\u00f3s og fimbulkuldi r\u00edkt v\u00ed\u00f0a. M\u00e1lverki\u00f0 er fr\u00e1 \u00feessu kuldaskei\u00f0i.<\/span><\/p>\n R\u00fdnum a\u00f0eins \u00ed sk\u00fdrslu nefndarinnar sem endurmat s\u00f3lblettat\u00f6lurnar. \u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Smella h\u00e9r til a\u00f0 s\u00e6kja: Fors\u00ed\u00f0a sk\u00fdrslunnar var\u00f0andi lei\u00f0r\u00e9ttingu m\u00e6ligana um fj\u00f6lda s\u00f3lbletta<\/p><\/div>\n <\/p>\n Ekki er gott a\u00f0 segja hve margir sem fjalla\u00f0 hafa \u00ed fr\u00e9ttum undanfari\u00f0 um st\u00f6rf \u00feessarar nefndar hafa lesi\u00f0 sk\u00fdrsluna e\u00f0a yfirh\u00f6fu\u00f0 s\u00e9\u00f0\u00a0hana.<\/p>\n \u00cd fr\u00e9ttum er a\u00f0al\u00e1herslan l\u00f6g\u00f0 \u00e1\u00a0\u00a0“Lei\u00f0r\u00e9tt s\u00f3lblettatala bendir til a\u00f0 ekki s\u00e9 h\u00e6gt rekja loftslagsbreytingar n\u00fat\u00edmans til aukinnar s\u00f3lvirkni”. \u00a0\u00de\u00f3 er n\u00e1nast ekkert fjalla\u00f0 um \u00e1hrif s\u00f3lar \u00e1 loftslagsbreytingar \u00ed sj\u00e1lfri sk\u00fdrslunni, \u00feannig a\u00f0 \u00feetta er t\u00falkun einhverra annarra en sk\u00fdrsluh\u00f6funda. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n \u00dea\u00f0 er r\u00e9tt a\u00f0 benda \u00e1 nokkur atri\u00f0i \u00ed sk\u00fdrslunni sem lesendur eru be\u00f0nir um a\u00f0 sko\u00f0a. \u00a0\u00dea\u00f0 er merkt me\u00f0 gulum \u00e1herslulit \u00ed eintakinu sem v\u00edsa\u00f0 var \u00e1:<\/p>\n \u00c1 bla\u00f0s\u00ed\u00f0u 1 \u00a0\u00ed “Abstract” er \u00a0fjalla\u00f0 er um loftslag jar\u00f0ar: “<\/span>Unfortunately, those two series do not match by various aspects, inducing confusions and contradictions when used in crucial contemporary studies of the solar dynamo or of the solar forcing on the Earth climate”.<\/span>\u00a0 \u00c1 f\u00e1einum \u00f6\u00f0rum st\u00f6\u00f0um \u00ed megintextanum \u00a0kemur or\u00f0i\u00f0 “climate” fyrir, en ekki \u00e1 \u00feann h\u00e1tt sem fr\u00e9ttir g\u00e1fu til kynna..<\/em><\/p>\n Ne\u00f0st \u00e1 bla\u00f0s\u00ed\u00f0u 66 og efst \u00e1 bla\u00f0s\u00ed\u00f0u 67 er bent \u00e1 eftirfarandi:\u00a0“However, although recent cycles do not reach unprecedented amplitudes anymore,\u00a0the repetition of five strong cycles over the last 60 years (cycles 17 to 22, with the exception of cycle 20) still marks a unique episode in the whole 400-year record.\u00a0This unique character is also illustrated when considering another sunspot byproduct, i.e. the number of spotless days over each sunspot cycle minimum”<\/em><\/span>.<\/p>\n \u00c1 bla\u00f0s\u00ed\u00f0um 71-72 stendur:<\/p>\n “…Still, although the levels of activity were not exceptional except maybe for cycle 19, the\u00a0<\/span>particularly long sequence of strong cycles in the late 20th remains a noteworthy episode. Indeed,\u00a0<\/span>the 400-year sunspot record and one of its by products, the number of spotless days, show that such\u00a0<\/span>a tight sequence of 5 strong cycles over 6 successive cycles (from 17 to 22, except 20), which we\u00a0<\/span>can call the \u201cModern Maximum\u201d, is still unique over at least the last four centuries. Given the\u00a0<\/span>inertia of natural systems exposed to the solar influences, like the Earth atmosphere-ocean system,\u00a0<\/span>this cycle clustering could still induce a peak in the external responses to solar activity, like the\u00a0<\/span>Earth climate. However, we conclude that the imprint of this Modern Maximum (e.g. Earth climate\u00a0<\/span><\/span>\u00a0forcing) would essentially result from time-integration effects (system inertia)<\/span>, since exceptionally high amplitudes of the solar magnetic cycle cannot be invoked anymore.<\/span> In this suggested revision,\u00a0<\/span>the estimated or modeled amplitude of the effects, including the response of the Earth environment,\u00a0<\/span>can be quite different, necessarily smaller, and should thus be re-assessed<\/span><\/p>\n The recalibrated series may thus indicate that a Grand Maximum needs to be redefined as a\u00a0tight repetition\/clustering of strong cycles over several decades, without requiring exceptionally<\/span> <\/p>\n Samanteki\u00f0, \u00fe\u00e1 kemur fram \u00e1 bla\u00f0s\u00ed\u00f0um 66, 67, 71 og 72 a\u00f0 s\u00f3lvirknin hafi veri\u00f0 \u00ed h\u00e6stu h\u00e6\u00f0um (Grand Maximum) \u00e1 s\u00ed\u00f0ari helmingi 20. aldar, en \u00ed sta\u00f0 \u00feess a\u00f0 mi\u00f0a vi\u00f0 \u00f3venju h\u00e1a toppa megi mi\u00f0a vi\u00f0 \u00f3venjulega mikinn fj\u00f6lda h\u00e1rra toppa \u00e1 \u00feessu t\u00edmabili.<\/span>\u00a0\u00deetta \u00fe\u00fd\u00f0ir einnig, a\u00f0 fullyr\u00f0ingin sem \u00edtreka\u00f0 hefur komi\u00f0 fram \u00ed fr\u00e9ttum undanfari\u00f0, b\u00e6\u00f0i erlendis og h\u00e9r \u00e1 landi\u00a0a\u00f0\u00a0“lei\u00f0r\u00e9tt s\u00f3lblettatala bendi til a\u00f0 ekki s\u00e9 h\u00e6gt rekja loftslagsbreytingar n\u00fat\u00edmans til aukinnar s\u00f3lvirkni<\/span>”\u00a0<\/em>\u00e1 ekki vi\u00f0 r\u00f6k a\u00f0 sty\u00f0jast s\u00e9 mi\u00f0a\u00f0 vi\u00f0 innihald sk\u00fdrslunnar, nema s\u00ed\u00f0ur s\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n S\u00f3lblettafj\u00f6ldinn er a\u00f0eins einn m\u00e6likvar\u00f0i af nokkrum til a\u00f0 meta virkni s\u00f3lar. A\u00f0rir m\u00e6likvar\u00f0ar benda eindregi\u00f0 til \u00feess a\u00f0 virkni s\u00f3lar hafi vissulega veri\u00f0 \u00ed h\u00e6stu h\u00e6\u00f0um undanfari\u00f0. \u00dea\u00f0 gera einnig n\u00fdju lei\u00f0r\u00e9ttu s\u00f3lblettag\u00f6gnin, en \u00e1 annan h\u00e1tt en \u00e1\u00f0ur.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Ein sk\u00fdring \u00e1 \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 s\u00f3lblettag\u00f6gnin s\u00fdna minni breytingu en \u00feau g\u00f6gn sem byggja \u00e1 \u00e1hrifum s\u00f3lvindsins (sams\u00e6tur beryll\u00edums og s\u00farefnis, aa-index, …) er a\u00f0 s\u00f3lblettirnir eru \u00fear sem segullykkjurnar \u00e1 yfirbor\u00f0i s\u00f3lar eru loka\u00f0ar, en s\u00f3lvindurinn kemur fr\u00e1 sv\u00e6\u00f0um \u00fear sem segullykkjurnar eru opnar og teygja sig \u00fat \u00ed geiminn. \u00a0Svo er ekki \u00fatiloka\u00f0 a\u00f0 mestu \u00e1hrifin af s\u00f3lvindinum \u00e1 hitafar tengist kenningum Henriks Svensmarks… \u00a0 S\u00f3lblettirnir sem sl\u00edkir hafa engin \u00e1hrif \u00e1 hitastigi\u00f0. \u00deeir eru bara eins og freknur \u00ed andliti en gefa \u00fe\u00f3 hugmynd um \u00e1stand s\u00f3lar. \u00dea\u00f0 er s\u00f3lvindurinn og samspil hans vi\u00f0 jar\u00f0segulsvi\u00f0i\u00f0 og geimgeisla sem vert er a\u00f0 beina sj\u00f3num a\u00f0. Ef til vill einnig\u00a0a\u00f0 hinir h\u00f6r\u00f0u \u00fatfj\u00f3lubl\u00e1u geislar sem eru mj\u00f6g breytilegir geti\u00a0haft\u00a0\u00e1hrif \u00e1 efstu l\u00f6g lofthj\u00fapsins…\u00a0<\/span> <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u00dat\u00fard\u00far til\u00a0umhugsunar \u00ed lokin:<\/span> Dan Pangburn er v\u00e9laverkfr\u00e6\u00f0ingur M.Sc. me\u00f0 g\u00f3\u00f0a \u00feekkingu \u00e1 varmafr\u00e6\u00f0i. Hann er h\u00f6fundur myndarinnar h\u00e9r fyrir ne\u00f0an sem er eing\u00f6ngu ger\u00f0 me\u00f0 t\u00edmaintegralinu af s\u00f3lblettat\u00f6lunum \u00e1samt innri sveiflum sem stafa af sveiflum \u00ed hafinu og haf\u00eds. Svarti ferillinn er 5-\u00e1ra me\u00f0altal af m\u00e6ldu hitastigi jar\u00f0ar og s\u00e1 br\u00fani\u00a0er \u00fatreikna\u00f0 gildi. Lengst til h\u00e6gri er sp\u00e1 um framt\u00ed\u00f0ina bygg\u00f0 \u00e1 minnkandi s\u00f3lvirkni, mi\u00f0a\u00f0 vi\u00f0 mismunandi forsendur.<\/span><\/p>\n Efri myndin s\u00fdnir t\u00edma-integrali\u00f0 me\u00f0 eldri s\u00f3lbletta gagnar\u00f6\u00f0inni, en Dan Pangburn pr\u00f3fa\u00f0i a\u00f0 reikna t\u00edmaintegrali\u00f0 me\u00f0 n\u00fdju s\u00f3lbletta-ser\u00edunni og\u00a0var ne\u00f0ri myndin \u00fatkoman, kom fram \u00ed svari \u00feegar \u00e9g haf\u00f0i samband vi\u00f0 hann.<\/p>\n \u00dea\u00f0 vekur \u00f3neitanlega athygli a\u00f0 h\u00e6gt s\u00e9 a\u00f0 l\u00e1ta Excel teikna feril sem fellur n\u00e1nast alveg \u00ed m\u00e6ldan hnattr\u00e6nan hitaferil me\u00f0 \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 nota eing\u00f6ngu m\u00e6lig\u00f6gn yfir s\u00f3lbletti og l\u00edkan af 60-\u00e1ra ve\u00f0urfarsveiflunni, \u00fe.e. \u00e1n \u00feess a\u00f0 taka tillit til\u00a0aukningar\u00a0koltv\u00eds\u00fdrings \u00ed andr\u00famsloftinu. \u00a0Hva\u00f0 veldur? Tilviljunin ein?<\/p>\n L\u00edkan byggt \u00e1 t\u00edmaintegrali af s\u00f3lblettat\u00f6lum og inni sveiflum (60\u00e1ra sveiflan \u00ed hafinu). Ekki teki\u00f0 tillit til CO2.<\/p><\/div>\n <\/p>\n N\u00fdja s\u00f3lbletattalan er h\u00e9r notu\u00f0.<\/p><\/div>\n <\/p>\n N\u00fa er bara a\u00f0 b\u00ed\u00f0a\u00a0\u00ed\u00a0f\u00e1ein \u00e1r. \u00dea\u00f0 er \u00f3umdeilt a\u00f0 s\u00f3lvirknin hefur fari\u00f0 hratt minnkandi fr\u00e1 aldam\u00f3tum eftir a\u00f0 s\u00f3lin hafi veri\u00f0 \u00f3venju spr\u00e6k, jafnvel n\u00fdja s\u00f3lblettatalan s\u00fdnir \u00fea\u00f0. Hvernig mun n\u00e1tt\u00faran breg\u00f0ast vi\u00f0? \u00a0Ef hiti jar\u00f0ar fer markvert k\u00f3lnandi \u00ed kj\u00f6lfari\u00f0, \u00fe\u00e1 hlj\u00f3ta b\u00f6ndin a\u00f0 beinast a\u00f0 blessa\u00f0ri s\u00f3linni. N\u00e1tt\u00faran er sem sagt \u00e6\u00f0sti d\u00f3marinn \u00ed \u00feessu m\u00e1li. \u00a0Vi\u00f0 skulum bara anda me\u00f0 nefinu \u00fear til d\u00f3mur hefur falli\u00f0…<\/span><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u00cdtarefni:<\/span>\u00a0Dr.\u00a0Nir Shaviv<\/a>\u00a0stjarne\u00f0lisfr\u00e6\u00f0ingur og pr\u00f3fessor vi\u00f0 h\u00e1sk\u00f3lann \u00ed Jer\u00fasalem hefur skrifa\u00f0 hli\u00f0st\u00e6\u00f0an en a\u00f0eins \u00edtarlegri \u00a0pistil \u00e1 bloggs\u00ed\u00f0u s\u00edna.\u00a0\u00a0Sj\u00e1\u00a0h\u00e9r<\/a>.<\/p>\n Nir Shaviv endar pistil sinn svona: \u00a0 “…<\/span>The bottom line is that the sun appears to have a large effect on the climate on various time scales. Whether or not the sunspots reflect the increase in solar activity since the Maunder minimum (as reflected in other datasets) is not very important. At most, if they don’t reflect, it only strengthen’s the idea that something associated with the solar wind does (such as the cosmic rays which they modulate)<\/span>.”.<\/span><\/p>\n —<\/p>\n Safn greina um samspil s\u00f3lar og ve\u00f0urfars jar\u00f0ar \u00e1 vefs\u00ed\u00f0unni Club du Soleil hj\u00e1 Queens University Belfast. Sj\u00e1\u00a0h\u00e9r<\/a>.<\/p>\n —<\/p>\n Greinin Revisiting the Sunspot Number<\/em> h\u00e9r<\/a> \u00e1 vefs\u00ed\u00f0u Leif Svalgaard.<\/p>\n Greinin Revisiting the Sunspot Number<\/em> h\u00e9r<\/a> me\u00f0 aths.\u00a0\u00c1HB.<\/p>\n N\u00fd s\u00f3lblettag\u00f6gn sem Excel skr\u00e1 fr\u00e1 Leif Svalg\u00e5rd: —<\/p>\n \u00c1 vefs\u00ed\u00f0u pr\u00f3fessors Ole Humlum vi\u00f0 Osl\u00f3arh\u00e1sk\u00f3la er t\u00f6luver\u00f0ur fr\u00f3\u00f0leikur h\u00e9r<\/a> um t\u00edmabili\u00f0 1600 til 1699, kaldasta t\u00edmabils Litlu \u00edsaldarinnar. Eftirfarandi spakm\u00e6li George Orwell koma\u00a0\u00f3neitanlega \u00ed hugann \u00feegar menn eru a\u00f0 “lei\u00f0r\u00e9tta” eldri g\u00f6gn:\u00a0<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n \u201cHe who controls the past controls the future. \u2015 George Orwell, \u00a0\u00a0<\/em><\/span>Nineteen<\/span> Eighty-Four<\/span><\/i><\/em><\/p>\n \u00dea\u00f0 \u00fearf \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 st\u00edga varlega til jar\u00f0ar…<\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dr\u00f6g \u00ed vinnslu… Upphaflega 14\/8 2015 S\u00ed\u00f0ast breytt 20\/8 2015 \u00cd fr\u00e9ttum n\u00fdlega var fjalla\u00f0 um a\u00f0 s\u00f3lblettatala undanfarinna \u00e1ratuga og alda hef\u00f0i veri\u00f0 endursko\u00f0u\u00f0 og eftir breytinguna virtist sem breytingar \u00ed s\u00f3lvirkni \u00e6tti ekki \u00fe\u00e1tt \u00ed h\u00e6kkun hitastigs sem var\u00f0 \u00e1 s\u00ed\u00f0ustu \u00e1ratugum n\u00fdli\u00f0innar aldar. Sem d\u00e6mi um umfj\u00f6llun m\u00e1 nefna pistil \u00e1…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":382,"parent":45,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"page-templates\/full-width.php","meta":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.agust.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/454"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.agust.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.agust.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.agust.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.agust.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=454"}],"version-history":[{"count":37,"href":"http:\/\/www.agust.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/454\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":499,"href":"http:\/\/www.agust.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/454\/revisions\/499"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.agust.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/45"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.agust.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/382"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.agust.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=454"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}\n
![\"Eldri](\"http:\/\/192.168.1.70\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/Sunspot_Numbers.png\")
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\n![\"Gamla](\"http:\/\/192.168.1.70\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/Nyrri-og-eldri-solblettatolur.jpg\")
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\n![\"N\u00fdrri](\"http:\/\/192.168.1.70\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/image-602.png\")
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\n![\"\u00der\u00f3un](\"http:\/\/192.168.1.70\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/wolfmms.png\")
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\n<\/a><\/p>\n![\"AA-index.](\"http:\/\/192.168.1.70\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/image-601.png\")
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\n![\"Bl\u00e1tt:](\"http:\/\/192.168.1.70\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/SolarActivityProxies.png\")
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Rautt: S\u00f3lbletattalan (eldri) fr\u00e1 um 1600 til 2000.<\/p><\/div>\n
\n![\"Fr\u00e1vik](\"http:\/\/192.168.1.70\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/885px-Carbon14_with_activity_labels.svg_.png\")
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\n<\/span>\u00dev\u00ed mi\u00f0ur eru ekki til m\u00e6lingar \u00e1 \u00f6rbylgjusu\u00f0i fr\u00e1 s\u00f3linni lengra aftur \u00ed t\u00edmann en fr\u00e1 1948. \u00a0\u00dearna sj\u00e1um vi\u00f0 \u00fe\u00f3 merkt inn \u00e1 myndina “1970s cooling period” \u00a0sem \u00a0vi\u00f0 k\u00f6llum h\u00e9r \u00e1 Fr\u00f3ni \u00fdmist haf\u00eds\u00e1rin e\u00f0a kal\u00e1rin. \u00a0\u00dear er s\u00f3lvirknin greinilega \u00ed nokkurri l\u00e6g\u00f0. \u00a0Vi\u00f0 sj\u00e1um einnig a\u00f0 lengst til h\u00e6gri stefnir s\u00f3lsveiflan \u00ed a\u00f0 vera enn\u00fe\u00e1 l\u00e6gri. Vonandi bo\u00f0ar \u00fea\u00f0 ekkert s\u00e9rstakt, en \u00fea\u00f0 er aldrei a\u00f0 vita…<\/p>\n![\"\u00datgeislun](\"http:\/\/192.168.1.70\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/F10-7GHz.png\")
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\nHvernig skyldi \u00e1standi\u00f0 hafa veri\u00f0 \u00e1 \u00cdslandi me\u00f0an \u00e1 Maunder l\u00e1gmarkinu st\u00f3\u00f0? \u00de\u00f3r Jakobsson segir \u00feetta \u00ed erindi s\u00ednu “Um haf\u00eds fyrir Su\u00f0urlandi – fr\u00e1 landn\u00e1mi til \u00feessa dags<\/a>“:\u00a0“1695. \u00d3vanalega miklir haf\u00edsar. \u00cds rak um veturinn upp a\u00f0 Nor\u00f0urlandi og l\u00e1 hann fram um \u00feing, nor\u00f0anve\u00f0ur r\u00e1ku \u00edsinn austur fyrir og svo su\u00f0ur, var hann kominn fyrir \u00deorl\u00e1ksh\u00f6fn fyrir sumarm\u00e1l og sunnudaginn fyrstan \u00ed sumri (14. apr\u00edl) rak hann fyrir Reykjanes og Gar\u00f0 og inn \u00e1 fiskileitir Seltirninga og a\u00f0 lokum a\u00f0 Hvalseyjum og \u00ed H\u00edtar\u00f3s, f\u00f3r hann inn \u00e1 hverja v\u00edk. Haf\u00f0i \u00eds ei komi\u00f0 fyrir Su\u00f0urnes innan 80 \u00e1ra, \u00fe\u00f3tti \u00fev\u00ed m\u00f6rgum n\u00fdst\u00e1rlegt og undrum gegna um komu hans. \u00de\u00e1 m\u00e1tti ganga \u00e1 \u00edsum af Akranesi \u00ed H\u00f3lmakaupsta\u00f0 (Reykjav\u00edk) og var \u00edsinn \u00e1 Faxafl\u00f3a fram um vert\u00ed\u00f0arlok r\u00famlega, braut hann skip undan 6 m\u00f6nnum fyrir Gar\u00f0i, en \u00feeir gengu allir til lands”.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n![\"M\u00e1lverki\u00f0](\"http:\/\/192.168.1.70\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/Thames-5-600w.jpg\")
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Horft er ni\u00f0ur eftir \u00e1nni \u00ed \u00e1tt a\u00f0 g\u00f6mlu Lund\u00fanarbr\u00fanni. Lengst til h\u00e6gri handan br\u00faarinnar er Southwark Cathedral, og \u00fear til vinstri s\u00e9st \u00ed turn St. Olave’s Church.<\/p><\/div>\n
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\n<\/span>“Revisiting the sunspot number<\/a>“<\/span><\/p>\n![\"Fors\u00ed\u00f0a](\"http:\/\/192.168.1.70\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/Revisiting-the-sunspot-number-Forsida.jpg\")
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\nhigh amplitudes for those cycles compared to other periods.“<\/em>.<\/span><\/p>\n
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\n\u00d3neitanlega mj\u00f6g \u00e1hugavert \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n
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\nVar\u00f0andi \u00fea\u00f0 a\u00f0 r\u00f6\u00f0 af \u00f3venjum\u00f6rgum h\u00e1um toppum hafi komi\u00f0 \u00ed lok s\u00ed\u00f0ustu aldar (…\u00a0a tight repetition\/clustering of strong cycles over several decade…)\u00a0<\/em>m\u00e1 skj\u00f3ta \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0, a\u00f0 \u00ed hitunart\u00e6kjum (rafmagnsofnar, hitunarhellur, hitak\u00fatar) er \u00feeirri a\u00f0fer\u00f0 yfirleitt\u00a0beitt a\u00f0 senda mis-langa e\u00f0a mis-\u00f6ra rafmagnsp\u00falsa a\u00f0 hitunart\u00e6kinu, og er \u00fe\u00e1 afli\u00f0 m\u00f3ta\u00f0 e\u00f0a \u00fev\u00ed breytt me\u00f0 \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 breyta t\u00edmalengd p\u00falsanna e\u00f0a hve \u00f6rt jafnlangir p\u00falsar koma. \u00a0B\u00e6\u00f0i \u00ed \u00feeim tilvikum, og einnig \u00ed tilviki s\u00f3larinnar, er \u00fea\u00f0 t\u00edmaintegrali\u00f0 af aflp\u00falsunum sem segir til um orkustreymi\u00f0 og \u00fear me\u00f0 endanlegan hita \u00feess sem veri\u00f0 er a\u00f0 hita, hvort sem \u00fea\u00f0 er s\u00fapan \u00ed pottinum e\u00f0a lofthj\u00fapur jar\u00f0ar, Sj\u00e1 til d\u00e6mis umfj\u00f6llun Dan Pangburn\u00a0h\u00e9r<\/a>\u00a0og h\u00e9r<\/a><\/span>. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n![\"L\u00edkan](\"http:\/\/192.168.1.70\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/AGT-results-sigmas-3-21-15-Fig-1.1.jpg\")
<\/a>![\"N\u00fdja](\"http:\/\/192.168.1.70\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/Pangburn-new-SSN.jpg\")
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\nTSI-SSN-Guess (1)<\/a><\/p>\n
\n\u00c1 annarri vefs\u00ed\u00f0u hans eru ferlar h\u00e9r<\/a> sem s\u00fdna \u00fdmis fyrirb\u00e6ri tengd s\u00f3linni, og h\u00e9r<\/a> ferlar sem tengjast hitafari jar\u00f0ar.<\/p>\n
\n<\/h2>\n
\nHe who controls the present controls the past.\u201d<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n