{"id":3452,"date":"2021-10-14T11:02:07","date_gmt":"2021-10-14T11:02:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.agust.net\/wordpress\/?p=3452"},"modified":"2021-10-14T21:30:55","modified_gmt":"2021-10-14T21:30:55","slug":"helgi-tomasson-tolfraediprofessor-tolfraedilegt-sjonarhorn-a-skyrslur-ipcc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.agust.net\/wordpress\/2021\/10\/14\/helgi-tomasson-tolfraediprofessor-tolfraedilegt-sjonarhorn-a-skyrslur-ipcc\/","title":{"rendered":"Helgi T\u00f3masson pr\u00f3fessor: T\u00f6lfr\u00e6\u00f0ilegt sj\u00f3narhorn \u00e1 sk\u00fdrslur IPCC…"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

<\/h1>\n

T\u00f6lfr\u00e6\u00f0ilegir gallar \u00fdki loftslagsv\u00e1na.<\/h1>\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
( Leturbreytingar eru m\u00ednar – \u00c1HB).<\/em><\/span><\/div>\n
\n

Morgunbla\u00f0i\u00f0.\u00a0 Fimmtudagur, 14. okt\u00f3ber 2021<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\n

Helgi T\u00f3m\u00adas\u00adson pr\u00f3fessor \u00ed hagranns\u00f3knum og t\u00f6lfr\u00e6\u00f0i vi\u00f0 H\u00e1sk\u00f3la \u00cdslands:<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201eTil\u00adgang\u00adur\u00adinn m\u00e1 ekki helga me\u00f0ali\u00f0. \u00de\u00f3tt meng\u00adun s\u00e9 sl\u00e6m m\u00e1 ekki nota hva\u00f0a a\u00f0fer\u00f0ir sem er til a\u00f0 draga \u00far henni.\u201c<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n
\n
\n

\"Helgi<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n

V\u00eds\u00adinda\u00admenn eiga \u00fea\u00f0 til a\u00f0 freist\u00adast til a\u00f0 vera me\u00f0 glanna\u00adleg\u00adar \u00e1lykt\u00adan\u00adir \u00fat fr\u00e1 m\u00e6l\u00ading\u00adum.<\/strong> \u00deetta hef\u00adur t.d. \u00feekkst \u00ed l\u00e6kna\u00adv\u00eds\u00adind\u00adum en auk\u00adin me\u00f0vit\u00adund og \u00fat\u00adbreidd\u00adari t\u00f6l\u00adfr\u00e6\u00f0i\u00feekk\u00ading hef\u00adur h\u00e6gt \u00e1 fl\u00e6\u00f0i fals\u00e1lykt\u00adana. \u00dea\u00f0 m\u00e1 me\u00f0al ann\u00adara \u00feakka m\u00f6nn\u00adum eins og John P.A. Io\u00adannidis sem birti grein 2005, um hvers vegna flest\u00adar birt\u00adar ni\u00f0ur\u00adst\u00f6\u00f0ur \u00ed l\u00e6kn\u00adis\u00adfr\u00e6\u00f0i eru rang\u00adar.<\/p>\n

A\u00f0 sj\u00e1lf\u00ads\u00f6g\u00f0u er ekki allt sem birt er \u00ed l\u00e6kna\u00adt\u00edma\u00adrit\u00adum bull, en t.d. gl\u00e6fra\u00adleg um\u00adgengni vi\u00f0 t.d. mark\u00adt\u00e6kni\u00adhug\u00adtaki\u00f0 hef\u00adur stund\u00adum leitt menn \u00e1 villi\u00adg\u00f6t\u00adur. Fr\u00e6gt d\u00e6mi um sl\u00edkt er sag\u00adan af Andrew Wakefield sem f\u00e9kk birta grein sem t\u00falku\u00f0 var \u00feannig a\u00f0 \u00e1kve\u00f0in b\u00f3lu\u00adsetn\u00ading v\u00e6ri h\u00e6ttu\u00adleg.<\/p>\n

Wakefield var kapp\u00adsam\u00adur (eins og marg\u00adir) l\u00e6kn\u00adir og haf\u00f0i toga\u00f0 nokkr\u00adar t\u00f6l\u00adur til. Heg\u00f0un hans var e.t.v. ekki st\u00f3r\u00adgl\u00e6p\u00adsam\u00adleg en st\u00f3ri skandall\u00adinn er hva\u00f0 l\u00edt\u00adil gagna\u00adf\u00f6ls\u00adun haf\u00f0i mik\u00adil \u00e1hrif. B\u00f3lu\u00adsetn\u00ading\u00adar eru eitt allra mesta gegn\u00adum\u00adbrot l\u00e6kna\u00adv\u00eds\u00adind\u00adanna en skrif Wakefield hafa af\u00advega\u00adleitt marga. Mark\u00admi\u00f0 \u00feess\u00adar\u00adar grein\u00adar er a\u00f0 hug\u00adlei\u00f0a menn\u00adingu \u00ed sk\u00fdrsl\u00adum IPCC um lofts\u00adlags\u00adm\u00e1l.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

S\u00f6gu\u00adleg atri\u00f0i um IPCC<\/strong><\/h2>\n

\"\"IPCC er skamm\u00adst\u00f6f\u00adun \u00e1 sk\u00fdrsl\u00adum Sam\u00adeinu\u00f0u \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0anna um lofts\u00adlags\u00adm\u00e1l og n\u00fd\u00adlega er kom\u00adin sk\u00fdrsla sem k\u00f6llu\u00f0 er n\u00fam\u00ader sex. Um eldri sk\u00fdrslu seg\u00adir t\u00f6l\u00adfr\u00e6\u00f0idoktor\u00adinn og fyrr\u00adver\u00adandi hag\u00adstofu\u00adstj\u00f3ri \u00c1str\u00adal\u00ad\u00edu, Denn\u00adis Trew\u00adin, \u00e1ri\u00f0 2008 \u00ed OECD-sk\u00fdrslu \u00ed kafla 32: \u00dev\u00ed mi\u00f0ur vant\u00adar t\u00f6l\u00adfr\u00e6\u00f0inga \u00ed s\u00e9r\u00adfr\u00e6\u00f0ingat\u00adeymi IPCC. \u00datkom\u00adan inni\u00adheld\u00adur \u00fev\u00ed al\u00advar\u00adlega galla. \u00deess\u00adir gall\u00adar eru til \u00feess falln\u00adir a\u00f0 \u00fdkja lofts\u00adlags\u00adbreyt\u00ading\u00adar framt\u00ed\u00f0ar\u00adinn\u00adar.<\/span> (Un\u00adfortuna\u00adtely the experts gat\u00adh\u00adered toget\u00adher for the IPCC’s work did not inclu\u00adde statistical experts. This has resulted in some potentially ser\u00adi\u00adous flaws in the statistical work of the IPCC which I will descri\u00adbe shortly. These flaws will tend to exag\u00adgera\u00adte the extent of fut\u00adure clima\u00adte change).<\/em> Hann lof\u00adar fram\u00adtak IPCC fyr\u00adir a\u00f0 hafa komi\u00f0 sam\u00adan st\u00f3r\u00adum h\u00f3pi v\u00eds\u00adinda\u00admanna og fengi\u00f0 \u00fe\u00e1 til a\u00f0 vinna sam\u00adan. Hann er mj\u00f6g kurt\u00adeis, seg\u00adir \u00feetta ef\u00adlaust \u00ed \u00e1tt\u00adina hj\u00e1 \u00feeim en seg\u00adir a\u00f0 t\u00f6l\u00adfr\u00e6\u00f0ileg\u00adir gall\u00adar hafi til\u00adhneig\u00adingu til a\u00f0 \u00fdkja \u00fat\u00adkom\u00aduna og a\u00f0 IPCC \u00feverskall\u00adist vi\u00f0 a\u00f0 lei\u00f0r\u00e9tta gall\u00adana. Hann kall\u00adar eft\u00adir \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 traust\u00adur a\u00f0ili eins og OECD f\u00e1i \u00fea\u00f0 verk\u00adefni a\u00f0 lei\u00f0r\u00e9tta vinnu IPCC svo r\u00edk\u00adis\u00adstj\u00f3rn\u00adir f\u00e1i \u00e1rei\u00f0an\u00adleg\u00adar v\u00eds\u00adbend\u00ading\u00adar sem n\u00fdt\u00adist til stefnu\u00adm\u00f3t\u00adun\u00adar.<\/p>\n

Um hef\u00f0bundn\u00adar t\u00edm\u00adara\u00f0aa\u00f0fer\u00f0ir<\/strong><\/h2>\n

\u00deegar g\u00f6gn eru t\u00edm\u00adara\u00f0ir \u00fearf a\u00f0 taka til\u00adlit til \u00feess g\u00f6gn\u00adin eru ekki \u00fat\u00adkoma \u00far slembi\u00far\u00adtaki.<\/strong> T\u00edm\u00adara\u00f0agrein\u00ading er s\u00e9r\u00adstakt rann\u00ads\u00f3kn\u00adar\u00adsvi\u00f0 inn\u00adan t\u00f6l\u00adfr\u00e6\u00f0inn\u00adar me\u00f0 til\u00adheyr\u00adandi kennslu\u00adb\u00f3k\u00adum og n\u00e1m\u00adskei\u00f0um. Al\u00admennt m\u00e1 segja a\u00f0 \u00fea\u00f0 s\u00e9 n\u00e1n\u00adast alltaf mis\u00adv\u00eds\u00adandi a\u00f0 reikna venju\u00adlega fylgni\u00adstu\u00f0la \u00e1 t\u00edm\u00adara\u00f0ag\u00f6gn\u00adum (sbr. spuri\u00adous-regressi\u00adon), sj\u00e1 t.d. grein eft\u00adir Udne Yule (1926). Grein\u00adin er n\u00e6st\u00adum 100 \u00e1ra og samt er f\u00f3lk enn a\u00f0 gera vill\u00adur sem Yule benti \u00e1. \u00dea\u00f0 blas\u00adir vi\u00f0 a\u00f0 \u00fear sem g\u00f6gn IPCC eru a\u00f0 miklu leyti t\u00edm\u00adara\u00f0ir \u00feurfi t\u00edm\u00adara\u00f0as\u00e9r\u00adfr\u00e6\u00f0inga til a\u00f0sto\u00f0ar. Bent var \u00e1 a\u00f0 \u00feetta \u00feyrfti IPCC a\u00f0 laga. Ung\u00adir Mex\u00ed\u00adk\u00f3\u00adar (Fransic\u00adso Estrada, o.fl.) sv\u00f6ru\u00f0u kalli IPCC.Me\u00f0al \u00feeirra sem ekki f\u00e9llu \u00ed stafi af hrifn\u00adingu yfir gagname\u00f0fer\u00f0 IPCC og fyrstu vinnu Mex\u00ed\u00adk\u00f3\u00adb\u00fa\u00adanna var Terence Mills, h\u00f6f\u00adund\u00adur margra kennslu\u00adb\u00f3ka um t\u00edm\u00adara\u00f0ir. Hann skrifa\u00f0i nokkr\u00adar ein\u00adfald\u00adar grein\u00adar, um hve mik\u00adil hl\u00fdn\u00adun\u00adin g\u00e6ti veri\u00f0. Mex\u00ed\u00adk\u00f3\u00adb\u00fa\u00adarn\u00adir (og IPCC) b\u00e6ttu heims\u00feekkt\u00adum t\u00edm\u00adara\u00f0amanni, hagrann\u00ads\u00f3kn\u00adar\u00admann\u00adin\u00adum Pier\u00adre Perron fr\u00e1 Bost\u00adon, \u00ed teymi\u00f0 og skrifu\u00f0u m.a. grein sem birt\u00adist 2013 um t\u00edm\u00adara\u00f0agrein\u00adingu \u00e1 lofts\u00adlags\u00adg\u00f6gn\u00adum. \u00deeir segja \u00ed inn\u00adgangi a\u00f0 lofts\u00adlags\u00adgagna\u00ads\u00e1tt um hnatt\u00adr\u00e6na hl\u00fdn\u00adun s\u00e9 ekki \u00ed sj\u00f3n\u00adm\u00e1li (…deba\u00adte …global hem\u00adispheric tem\u00adpera\u00adt\u00adure has taken place in clima\u00adte change litera\u00adt\u00adure has har\u00addly been sett\u00adled at the present time). \u00deeir vitna til nokk\u00adurra heim\u00adilda um a\u00f0 ekki s\u00e9 sam\u00adhlj\u00f3m\u00adur \u00e1 me\u00f0al t\u00edm\u00adara\u00f0amanna um hita\u00adbreyt\u00ading\u00adar. \u00deeir voru mj\u00f6g kok\u00adhraust\u00adir og \u00ed ein\u00adhverri af \u00feeirra grein\u00adum tala \u00feeir um a\u00f0 \u00feeir beiti \u201emj\u00f6g f\u00edn\u00adum hagrann\u00ads\u00f3kn\u00adara\u00f0fer\u00f0um\u201c (\u201estate-of-the-art-econometrics\u201c).<\/p>\n

Fyr\u00adir \u00fe\u00e1 sem til \u00feekkja vir\u00f0ist \u00feetta vera til\u00adt\u00f6lu\u00adlega venju\u00adleg kennslu\u00adb\u00f3kar\u00adfr\u00e6\u00f0i.<\/p>\n

\u00cd t\u00edm\u00adara\u00f0afr\u00e6\u00f0um \u00fearf a\u00f0 gera r\u00e1\u00f0 fyr\u00adir ein\u00adhvers kon\u00adar st\u00f6\u00f0ug\u00adleika\u00adhug\u00adtaki (stati\u00adona\u00adrity) til a\u00f0 h\u00e6gt s\u00e9 a\u00f0 \u00e1lykta \u00fat fr\u00e1 einni runu af m\u00e6l\u00ading\u00adum \u00e1 til\u00adteknu ferli.<\/strong> \u00cd kennslu\u00adb\u00f3k\u00adum er e\u00f0li st\u00f6\u00f0ug\u00adleik\u00adans stund\u00adum l\u00fdst me\u00f0 t\u00f6l\u00adunni, d, \u00fear sem d=0 \u00fe\u00fd\u00f0ir fast\u00adur breyti\u00adleiki, hugs\u00adan\u00adlega um\u00adhverf\u00adis l\u00ednu. \u00dea\u00f0 blas\u00adir vi\u00f0 a\u00f0 ef not\u00adast \u00e1 vi\u00f0 d=0, \u00fe\u00e1 \u00feurfa leitnil\u00edn\u00adur hita\u00adm\u00e6l\u00adinga a\u00f0 inni\u00adhalda brot. Erfitt er a\u00f0 meta t\u00edma\u00adsetn\u00ading\u00adar sl\u00edkra brota. Hagrann\u00ads\u00f3kn\u00adar\u00adma\u00f0ur\u00adinn Perron hef\u00adur or\u00f0i\u00f0 \u00feekkt\u00adur fyr\u00adir a\u00f0 \u00fer\u00f3a a\u00f0fer\u00f0afr\u00e6\u00f0i til \u00e1lykt\u00adun\u00adar um hvort d s\u00e9 0 e\u00f0a 1. \u00cd kennslu\u00adb\u00f3k\u00adun\u00adum er tala\u00f0 um ARIMA (p,d,q). \u00dea\u00f0 a\u00f0 d s\u00e9 einn \u00fe\u00fd\u00f0ir a\u00f0 breyt\u00ading s\u00e9 st\u00f6\u00f0ug, en r\u00f6\u00f0in \u00fer\u00f3\u00adast \u00fe\u00e1 me\u00f0 svipu\u00f0um h\u00e6tti og eig\u00adin\u00adfj\u00e1rsta\u00f0a r\u00fall\u00adettu\u00adspil\u00adara. Tal\u00adan d er eins kon\u00adar m\u00e6li\u00adkv\u00adar\u00f0i \u00e1 upp\u00ads\u00f6fn\u00adun\u00adare\u00f0li eig\u00adin\u00adfj\u00e1r\u00adst\u00f6\u00f0unn\u00adar. \u00dea\u00f0 er ekki raun\u00adh\u00e6ft a\u00f0 \u00edmynda s\u00e9r a\u00f0 hita\u00adstig \u00fer\u00f3\u00adist eins og eig\u00adin\u00adfj\u00e1rsta\u00f0a r\u00fall\u00adettu\u00adspil\u00adara. \u00deetta eru \u00e1skor\u00adan\u00adir sem t\u00edm\u00adara\u00f0al\u00edk\u00adana\u00adsmi\u00f0ir \u00feurfa a\u00f0 tak\u00adast \u00e1 vi\u00f0 til a\u00f0 f\u00e1 raun\u00adh\u00e6fa hug\u00admynd um e\u00f0li hreyfi\u00admynst\u00adurs\u00adbreyta eins og hita\u00adstigs.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Treg\u00adbreyt\u00adan\u00adleg t\u00edmar\u00f6\u00f0<\/strong><\/h2>\n

\u00cd kring\u00adum 1950 var vatna\u00adverk\u00adfr\u00e6\u00f0ing\u00adur, Harold Hurst, a\u00f0 sko\u00f0a g\u00f6gn um fl\u00f3\u00f0ah\u00e6\u00f0 \u00ed N\u00edl. Hann sko\u00f0a\u00f0i s\u00f6gu\u00adleg g\u00f6gn fyr\u00adir nokk\u00adur hundru\u00f0 \u00e1ra t\u00edma\u00adbil um fl\u00f3\u00f0ah\u00e6\u00f0 og fann \u00e1kve\u00f0na treg\u00f0u \u00ed hreyfi\u00admynstr\u00adinu.<\/strong> Hann l\u00fdst \u00feessu me\u00f0 t\u00f6lu, H (Hurst-index). \u00cd gr\u00f3f\u00adum dr\u00e1tt\u00adum m\u00e1 segja a\u00f0 \u00fea\u00f0 s\u00e9 eins kon\u00adar ARIMA (p,d,q) l\u00edk\u00adan \u00fear sem d er brot. \u00deetta m\u00e6tti kalla brotj\u00f6fn\u00adun\u00adar\u00adferli (fracti\u00adonally-in\u00adtegra\u00adted, ARFIMA). \u00cd kennslu\u00adb\u00f3k\u00adum \u00ed t\u00edmar\u00f6\u00f0um er sagt a\u00f0 marg\u00adar um\u00adhverf\u00adis\u00adv\u00eds\u00adindara\u00f0ir hafi \u00feenn\u00adan eig\u00adin\u00adleika. Fr\u00e1 d\u00f6g\u00adum Hurst hef\u00adur t\u00f6l\u00adfr\u00e6\u00f0it\u00e6kni fleygt fram og n\u00fa m\u00e1 meta d \u00fat fr\u00e1 m\u00e6l\u00ading\u00adum me\u00f0 for\u00adrit\u00adum sem n\u00e1lg\u00adast m\u00e1 \u00e1 net\u00adinu (GRETL, R, o.fl.). Kennslu\u00adb\u00f3k\u00adar\u00adh\u00f6f\u00adund\u00adur\u00adinn Mills er einn \u00feeirra sem stungi\u00f0 hafa upp \u00e1 sl\u00edkri n\u00e1lg\u00adun fyr\u00adir hita\u00adstig \u00ed lofti.Norsk\u00adur v\u00eds\u00adindama\u00f0ur, Jon Dagsvik, tek\u00adur \u00feetta skipu\u00adlega fyr\u00adir \u00ed grein sem birt\u00adist \u00ed einu vir\u00f0uleg\u00adasta t\u00f6l\u00adfr\u00e6\u00f0it\u00edma\u00adriti heims, Journal of Royal Statistical Society, 2020. \u00dear er \u00e1lykta\u00f0 um hversu treg\u00adbreyt\u00adan\u00adlegt ferli \u00fer\u00f3un hita\u00adstigs er. \u00cd stuttu m\u00e1li \u00fe\u00e1 bygg\u00adir n\u00e1lg\u00adun hans \u00e1 l\u00edkani, sem er mj\u00f6g l\u00edkt ARIMA(0,d,0) \u00fear sem d er brot, \u00fe.e. hita\u00adstig hreyf\u00adist svipa\u00f0 og fl\u00f3\u00f0ah\u00e6\u00f0 \u00ed N\u00edl og fr\u00e1\u00advik\u00adin l\u00edkj\u00adast normal\u00addreif\u00adingu. Grein\u00adin s\u00fdn\u00adir st\u00e6r\u00f0fr\u00e6\u00f0ileg\u00adar \u00fat\u00adlei\u00f0slur og s\u00ed\u00f0an d\u00e6mi um notk\u00adun \u00e1 g\u00f6gn\u00adum, hita\u00adm\u00e6l\u00ading\u00adum 96 ve\u00f0ur\u00adst\u00f6\u00f0va \u00ed um \u00fea\u00f0 bil 200 \u00e1r, \u00e1samt \u00e1\u00e6tlu\u00f0um hita\u00adt\u00f6l\u00adum bygg\u00f0um \u00e1 \u00e1r\u00adhringj\u00adum \u00far trj\u00e1m \u00ed um \u00fea\u00f0 bil 2.000 \u00e1r. Ni\u00f0ursta\u00f0an er a\u00f0 \u00fer\u00f3un hita\u00adstigs er vel l\u00fdst sem treg\u00adbreyti\u00adlegu (long-memory) ferli me\u00f0 fast me\u00f0altal. \u00de.e. eng\u00adin \u00fer\u00f3un \u00ed t\u00edma. S\u00e9r \u00ed lagi eng\u00adin \u00fer\u00f3un \u00e1 seinni hluta 20. ald\u00adar. G\u00f6gn\u00adum og for\u00adrit\u00adum sem tengj\u00adast grein\u00adinni m\u00e1tti hla\u00f0a ni\u00f0ur af heimas\u00ed\u00f0u t\u00edma\u00adrits\u00adins (grein\u00adar\u00adh\u00f6f\u00adund\u00adur er me\u00f0 \u00feessi g\u00f6gn).<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Gagn\u00adr\u00fdni \u00e1 IPCC<\/strong><\/h2>\n

\u00ddmiss kon\u00adar gagn\u00adr\u00fdni hef\u00adur komi\u00f0 fram \u00e1 IPCC. Ein var \u00e1 \u00fe\u00e1 lei\u00f0 a\u00f0 ma\u00f0ur, Douglas J. Kenn\u00adan, \u00e1kva\u00f0 a\u00f0 b\u00faa til 1.000 ra\u00f0ir af svipa\u00f0ri lengd og IPCC vinn\u00adur me\u00f0.<\/strong> Sveifl\u00adurn\u00adar voru haf\u00f0ar af s\u00f6mu st\u00e6r\u00f0argr\u00e1\u00f0u og hita\u00adsveifl\u00adurn\u00adar, en \u00fer\u00f3un sumra ra\u00f0a var 1 gr\u00e1\u00f0a per 100 \u00e1r og annarra var -1 gr\u00e1\u00f0a per 100 \u00e1r, \u00fe.e. meiri hl\u00fdn\u00adun en IPCC seg\u00adir. S\u00ed\u00f0an var ver\u00f0laun\u00adum heiti\u00f0 ef menn g\u00e6tu flokka\u00f0 meira en 900 ra\u00f0ir (af 1.000) r\u00e9tt. Hann seg\u00adir a\u00f0 34 v\u00eds\u00adinda\u00admenn hafi keppt en eng\u00adinn geta\u00f0 flokka\u00f0 meira en um \u00fea\u00f0 bil 860 r\u00e9tt. \u00dea\u00f0 var n\u00e1\u00adl\u00e6gt \u00fev\u00ed sem hann haf\u00f0i reikna\u00f0 \u00fat a\u00f0 v\u00e6ri v\u00e6nt\u00adan\u00adlegt fyr\u00adir heppn\u00adasta kepp\u00adand\u00adann. \u00deetta er n\u00e1tt\u00ad\u00faru\u00adlega ein\u00adhvers kon\u00adar gr\u00edn, en bo\u00f0skap\u00adur\u00adinn (r\u00e9tti\u00adlega) er a\u00f0 100-200 \u00e1r er frek\u00adar stutt t\u00edma\u00adbil ef meta \u00e1 breyt\u00adingu af st\u00e6r\u00f0argr\u00e1\u00f0unni ein gr\u00e1\u00f0a \u00e1 \u00f6ld. Erfitt a\u00f0 greina hl\u00fdn\u00adun fr\u00e1 k\u00f3ln\u00adun.J. Scott Armstrong er stofn\u00adandi tveggja fr\u00e6\u00f0irita um sp\u00e1l\u00edkana\u00adger\u00f0, Journal of For\u00adecasting og In\u00adternati\u00adonal Journal of For\u00adecasting. Hann hef\u00adur teki\u00f0 sam\u00adan vinnu\u00adregl\u00adur um hvernig skuli vinna me\u00f0 sp\u00e1r og tel\u00adur a\u00f0 IPCC brj\u00f3ti marg\u00adar.<\/p>\n

Danski jar\u00f0fr\u00e6\u00f0ing\u00adur\u00adinn Jens Morten Han\u00adsen, sem m.a. hef\u00adur rann\u00adsaka\u00f0 Gr\u00e6n\u00adlands\u00adj\u00f6k\u00adul og gegnt mik\u00adil\u00adv\u00e6g\u00adum emb\u00e6tt\u00adum \u00ed d\u00f6nsku rann\u00ads\u00f3kn\u00adar\u00adum\u00adhverfi, var\u00adar vi\u00f0 oft\u00falk\u00adun\u00adum \u00e1 sk\u00fdrsl\u00adum IPCC. Han\u00adsen hef\u00adur efa\u00adsemd\u00adir um a\u00f0fer\u00f0afr\u00e6\u00f0i IPCC og reynsla hans af rann\u00ads\u00f3kn\u00adum \u00e1 Gr\u00e6n\u00adlands\u00adj\u00f6kli \u00e1samt til\u00adfinn\u00adingu fyr\u00adir st\u00e6r\u00f0argr\u00e1\u00f0um seg\u00adir a\u00f0 jafn\u00advel b\u00f3k\u00adstaf\u00adleg t\u00falk\u00adun \u00e1 svi\u00f0smynd\u00adum IPCC s\u00fdni a\u00f0 hvorki muni Gr\u00e6n\u00adlands\u00adj\u00f6k\u00adull hverfa n\u00e9 muni Dan\u00adm\u00f6rk s\u00f6kkva. Hann vitn\u00adar \u00fear til s\u00ed\u00f0ustu \u00eds\u00adalda og hl\u00fd\u00adinda\u00adskei\u00f0a milli \u00feeirra. Han\u00adsen gagn\u00adr\u00fdn\u00adir einnig danska r\u00edk\u00adis\u00ad\u00fat\u00advarpi\u00f0, DR (Dan\u00admarks Radio), fyr\u00adir ein\u00adhli\u00f0a m\u00e1l\u00adflutn\u00ading og \u00fdkj\u00adur um \u00fea\u00f0 hversu sam\u00adm\u00e1la v\u00eds\u00adinda\u00admenn s\u00e9u.<\/p>\n

B\u00e6\u00f0i Han\u00adsen og Armstrong nefna Al Gore sem v\u00edti til a\u00f0 var\u00adast. Gore hafi veri\u00f0 me\u00f0 fr\u00e1\u00adleita sp\u00e1\u00add\u00f3ma \u00e1 s\u00edn\u00adum t\u00edma sem alls ekki hafi gengi\u00f0 eft\u00adir. Han\u00adsen seg\u00adir \u00ed Kristeligt Dag\u00adblad a\u00f0 Gore hafi veri\u00f0 hepp\u00adinn a\u00f0 f\u00e1 N\u00f3\u00adbels\u00adver\u00f0laun\u00adin fyr\u00adir fram (hugs\u00adan\u00adlega einnig skatt\u00adborg\u00adar\u00adarn\u00adir sem sluppu vi\u00f0 skatta\u00addill\u00adur hans). Gore og IPCC fengu fri\u00f0ar\u00adver\u00f0laun N\u00f3\u00adbels 2007.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Umr\u00e6\u00f0a<\/strong><\/h2>\n

T\u00f3nn sumra bo\u00f0bera lofts\u00adlags\u00adv\u00e1r minn\u00adir \u00e1 r\u00e9tt\u00adtr\u00fana\u00f0arklerka, sem telja sig umbo\u00f0smenn gu\u00f0s og messa \u00ed rei\u00f0it\u00f3n yfir s\u00f6fnu\u00f0um s\u00edn\u00adum.<\/strong> Bo\u00f0skap\u00adur\u00adinn er: N\u00fa hafi\u00f0 \u00fei\u00f0 syndga\u00f0, gu\u00f0 er rei\u00f0ur og \u00fev\u00ed mi\u00f0ur er nau\u00f0syn\u00adlegt a\u00f0 sveifla refsi\u00advend\u00adin\u00adum, \u00fat\u00adhluta sekt\u00adum og kv\u00f6\u00f0um til a\u00f0 s\u00f6fnu\u00f0ur\u00adinn \u00f6\u00f0list m\u00f6gu\u00adleika \u00e1 inn\u00adg\u00f6ngu \u00ed himna\u00adr\u00edki.\u00cd b\u00f3k sinni, Fact\u00adful\u00adness, vitn\u00adar Hans Rosl\u00ading einnig \u00ed Al Gore. \u00c1 bla\u00f0s\u00ed\u00f0u 229 seg\u00adir hann fr\u00e1 \u00fev\u00ed \u00feegar hann hitt\u00adir Gore \u00ed fyrsta sinn og \u00feeir r\u00e6\u00f0a lofts\u00adlags\u00adm\u00e1l. Vi\u00f0 \u00feurf\u00adum a\u00f0 skapa \u00f3tta (We need to crea\u00adte fear) seg\u00adir Gore og vill draga fram verstu hugs\u00adan\u00adlegu svi\u00f0smynd. Rosl\u00ading tel\u00adur a\u00f0 \u201e\u00falf\u00adur-\u00falf\u00adur\u201c-m\u00e1l\u00adflutn\u00ading\u00adur\u00adinn s\u00e9 ekki heppi\u00adleg\u00adur. Hugs\u00adan\u00adlega g\u00e6ti \u00fea\u00f0 leitt til \u00feess a\u00f0 vi\u00f0br\u00f6g\u00f0 vi\u00f0 \u00f6\u00f0rum h\u00e6tt\u00adum, t.d. far\u00ads\u00f3tt\u00adum, yr\u00f0u slj\u00f3rri. \u00dea\u00f0 a\u00f0 Gore tali svona dreg\u00adur einnig fram a\u00f0ra h\u00e6ttu. \u00dea\u00f0 er a\u00f0 stj\u00f3rn\u00adm\u00e1la\u00admenn noti svona til a\u00f0 skafa til s\u00edn skatta. \u00c1\u00f0ur\u00adnefnd\u00adur Armstrong seg\u00adist hafa rann\u00adsaka\u00f0 23 op\u00adin\u00adber lofts\u00adlags\u00adverk\u00adefni og \u00e1lykt\u00adar a\u00f0 20 \u00feeirra hafi veri\u00f0 ska\u00f0leg.<\/p>\n

Til\u00adgang\u00adur\u00adinn m\u00e1 ekki helga me\u00f0ali\u00f0<\/strong>. \u00de\u00f3tt meng\u00adun s\u00e9 sl\u00e6m m\u00e1 ekki nota hva\u00f0a a\u00f0fer\u00f0ir sem er til a\u00f0 draga \u00far henni. \u00dea\u00f0 get\u00adur veri\u00f0 skyn\u00adsam\u00adlegt fyr\u00adir \u00cdslend\u00adinga a\u00f0 draga \u00far los\u00adun kolt\u00adv\u00ed\u00ads\u00fdr\u00adings \u00fev\u00ed los\u00adun\u00adin er af\u00adlei\u00f0ing af brennslu ol\u00edu. Ol\u00ed\u00adan er d\u00fdr (og \u00ed heim\u00adin\u00adum end\u00adan\u00adleg au\u00f0lind) og \u00fev\u00ed mik\u00adil\u00adv\u00e6gt a\u00f0 fara spar\u00adlega me\u00f0 hana. Ol\u00ad\u00edu\u00adsparna\u00f0ur\u00adinn m\u00e1 hins veg\u00adar ekki kosta hva\u00f0 sem er. Hva\u00f0a m\u00e1lsta\u00f0ur er \u00fea\u00f0 sem kall\u00adar \u00e1 \u00fea\u00f0 a\u00f0 fara me\u00f0 ung\u00adling \u00e1 segl\u00adskipi yfir Atlants\u00adhafi\u00f0 til a\u00f0 l\u00e1ta hann \u00e1varpa \u00feing Sam\u00adeinu\u00f0u \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0anna?<\/p>\n

T\u00f6l\u00adfr\u00e6\u00f0in (statistical theory) \u00e6tti hugs\u00adan\u00adlega a\u00f0 heita \u00e1stands\u00adfr\u00e6\u00f0i \u00fear sem l\u00edk\u00adinda\u00adfr\u00e6\u00f0i er notu\u00f0 til a\u00f0 \u00e1lykta um \u00e1stand \u00fat fr\u00e1 m\u00e6l\u00ading\u00adum. \u00d6nnur hag\u00adn\u00fdt\u00ading \u00e1 l\u00edk\u00adinda\u00adfr\u00e6\u00f0i er \u00e1kv\u00f6r\u00f0un\u00adar\u00adfr\u00e6\u00f0i (decisi\u00adon theory). \u00dea\u00f0 er fr\u00e6\u00f0in um hva\u00f0 best s\u00e9 a\u00f0 gera. T\u00f6l\u00adfr\u00e6\u00f0ing\u00adar eru oft fur\u00f0u \u00e1huga\u00adlaus\u00adir um \u00fea\u00f0. Hva\u00f0 er besta hita\u00adstigi\u00f0, e\u00f0a besta kolt\u00adv\u00ed\u00ads\u00fdr\u00adings\u00adhlut\u00adfalli\u00f0?<\/p>\n

IPCC-sk\u00fdrsla, AR6 sem ligg\u00adur fyr\u00adir, er um 4.000 bla\u00f0s\u00ed\u00f0ur.<\/strong> Leit a\u00f0 t\u00edm\u00adara\u00f0ahug\u00adt\u00f6k\u00adum eins og sj\u00e1lf\u00adfylgni (autocor\u00adrelati\u00adon) \u00ed text\u00adan\u00adum gef\u00adur ekki v\u00eds\u00adbend\u00ading\u00adar um \u00fer\u00f3a\u00f0a t\u00edm\u00adara\u00f0al\u00edk\u00adan\u00adger\u00f0 hj\u00e1 IPCC. Hugs\u00adan\u00adlega finnst rit\u00adstj\u00f3r\u00adum IPCC ni\u00f0ursta\u00f0a t\u00edm\u00adara\u00f0al\u00edk\u00adana ekki n\u00f3gu krass\u00adandi.<\/p>\n

Fyr\u00adir um\u00adhverf\u00adis\u00advanda\u00adm\u00e1l \u00cdslands eru enn \u00ed gildi g\u00f6mlu lei\u00f0in\u00adlegu vanda\u00adm\u00e1l\u00adin, upp\u00adbl\u00e1st\u00adur, of\u00adbeit, lausa\u00adganga b\u00fafj\u00e1r og fr\u00e1\u00adgang\u00adur \u00e1 skolpi, auk \u00fat\u00adbl\u00e1st\u00adurs \u00e1 brenni\u00adsteins\u00adguf\u00adum og hli\u00f0st\u00e6\u00f0um eit\u00adur\u00adg\u00f6s\u00adum.<\/strong> Ef hl\u00fdn\u00adun er raun\u00adveru\u00adleg \u00e6ttu \u00cdslend\u00ading\u00adar a\u00f0 taka \u00fev\u00ed fagn\u00adandi, auka upp\u00adgr\u00e6\u00f0slu og skapa n\u00fd t\u00e6ki\u00adf\u00e6ri \u00ed land\u00adb\u00fana\u00f0i.<\/p>\n

\u00c1lykt\u00adan\u00adir t\u00edm\u00adara\u00f0amanna eins og Dagsvik og Mills um a\u00f0 \u00fer\u00f3un yf\u00adir\u00adbor\u00f0shita jar\u00f0ar s\u00e9 treg\u00adbreyti\u00adleg me\u00f0 fast me\u00f0altal eru af\u00adger\u00adandi. A.m.k. eru breyt\u00ading\u00adar mj\u00f6g h\u00e6g\u00adar (mi\u00f0a\u00f0 vi\u00f0 okk\u00adar l\u00edf\u00adt\u00edma) og ver\u00f0skulda alls ekki gild\u00adis\u00adhla\u00f0nar upp\u00adhr\u00f3p\u00adan\u00adir eins og ham\u00adfara\u00adhl\u00fdn\u00adun e\u00f0a lofts\u00adlags\u00adv\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Vissu\u00adlega er meng\u00adun vanda\u00adm\u00e1l. H\u00e6ttu\u00adleg\u00adum efn\u00adum er sleppt \u00fat \u00ed um\u00adhverfi\u00f0. Kolt\u00adv\u00ed\u00ads\u00fdr\u00ading\u00adur er n\u00e1tt\u00ad\u00faru\u00adlegt efni og l\u00edfs\u00adnau\u00f0syn\u00adleg n\u00e6r\u00ading fyr\u00adir pl\u00f6nt\u00adur.<\/strong> Fyr\u00adir ligg\u00adur a\u00f0 e\u00f0lis\u00adfr\u00e6\u00f0i fr\u00e1 t.d. Joseph Fourier \u00e1 fyrri hluta 19. ald\u00adar og Svan\u00adte Arr\u00adhenius \u00ed lok 19. ald\u00adar seg\u00adir a\u00f0 g\u00f6s \u00ed lofti (and\u00adr\u00fams\u00adlofti) geti haft \u00e1hrif \u00e1 yf\u00adir\u00adbor\u00f0shita. Gr\u00f3f sko\u00f0un gagna s\u00fdn\u00adir a\u00f0 \u00feetta yf\u00adir\u00adf\u00e6r\u00adist ekki au\u00f0veld\u00adlega \u00e1 \u00fer\u00f3un hita \u00e1 yf\u00adir\u00adbor\u00f0i jar\u00f0ar s\u00ed\u00f0ustu 100-200 \u00e1r. \u00deetta er miklu fl\u00f3kn\u00adari kap\u00adall. Aug\u00adlj\u00f3st er a\u00f0 15-20 \u00e1ra \u00e1lykt\u00adun Trew\u00adin um a\u00f0 sk\u00fdrsl\u00adur IPCC s\u00e9u t\u00f6l\u00adfr\u00e6\u00f0ilega van\u00fer\u00f3a\u00f0ar stend\u00adur enn.<\/p>\n

N\u00f3\u00adbels\u00adver\u00f0launa\u00adhaf\u00adinn Rich\u00adard Feynman sag\u00f0i a\u00f0 \u00fea\u00f0 v\u00e6ri mik\u00adil\u00adv\u00e6g\u00adara a\u00f0 vi\u00f0ur\u00adkenna a\u00f0 vi\u00f0 hef\u00f0um ekki sv\u00f6r vi\u00f0 \u00e1kve\u00f0num spurn\u00ading\u00adum, held\u00adur en a\u00f0 f\u00e1 skammta\u00f0 svar sem ekki m\u00e1 ef\u00adast um (\u00fe\u00fd\u00f0ing grein\u00adar\u00adh\u00f6f\u00adund\u00adar, kannski ekki h\u00e1r\u00adn\u00e1\u00adkv\u00e6m).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

H\u00f6f\u00adund\u00adur er pr\u00f3\u00adfess\u00ador \u00ed hagrann\u00ads\u00f3kn\u00adum og t\u00f6l\u00adfr\u00e6\u00f0i vi\u00f0 H\u00e1\u00adsk\u00f3la \u00cdslands.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

<\/div>\n
\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

T\u00f6lfr\u00e6\u00f0ilegir gallar \u00fdki loftslagsv\u00e1na. ( Leturbreytingar eru m\u00ednar – \u00c1HB). Morgunbla\u00f0i\u00f0.\u00a0 Fimmtudagur, 14. okt\u00f3ber 2021   Helgi T\u00f3m\u00adas\u00adson pr\u00f3fessor \u00ed hagranns\u00f3knum og t\u00f6lfr\u00e6\u00f0i vi\u00f0 H\u00e1sk\u00f3la \u00cdslands: \u201eTil\u00adgang\u00adur\u00adinn m\u00e1 ekki helga me\u00f0ali\u00f0. \u00de\u00f3tt meng\u00adun s\u00e9 sl\u00e6m m\u00e1 ekki nota hva\u00f0a a\u00f0fer\u00f0ir sem er til a\u00f0 draga \u00far henni.\u201c V\u00eds\u00adinda\u00admenn eiga \u00fea\u00f0 til a\u00f0 freist\u00adast til a\u00f0…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3462,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"image","meta":[],"categories":[8,9,11],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.agust.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3452"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.agust.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.agust.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.agust.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.agust.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3452"}],"version-history":[{"count":13,"href":"http:\/\/www.agust.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3452\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3469,"href":"http:\/\/www.agust.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3452\/revisions\/3469"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.agust.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3462"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.agust.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3452"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.agust.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3452"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.agust.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3452"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}